787
AXNT20 KNHC 241016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave`s axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is along 45W, south of 13N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave`s axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the wave`s axis, from 10N-14N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

A western Caribbean/EPAC tropical wave is along 87W, south of
18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm W of the wave axis south of 14N,
affecting the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 12N and east of
24W and from 06N to 12N and between 47W and 57W. Lighter activity
prevails along the ITCZ between 26W-42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The basin is under generally dry conditions. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in the western
Gulf. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas
prevail across the area W of 90W, while gentle winds and slight
seas prevail E of 90W. Similar conditions are expected through the
week, as a weak high pressure builds over the E central Gulf Tue
through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to
enhance the showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater
Antilles and surrounding waters. Similar convection is noted off
NW Colombia, off eastern Yucatan and NE Caribbean, also affecting
the Leeward Islands. An expansive subtropical ridge centered
between Bermuda and the Azores extends southwestward into the
Caribbean Sea. The ridge is forcing fresh to strong easterly
winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are
4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic
basin. With this, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
across the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight, pulsing
to strong speeds at night near the coast over the south-central
basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are will prevail
across the western basin through the week, except for winds
pulsing to strong speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through
this morning. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical
wave moving across the eastern basin Tue through early Wed and
across the central basin Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting the
Bahamas and surrounding waters. In the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, Saharan dust and subsidence allow for drier conditions.

An expansive subtropical ridge is centered between Bermuda and
the Azores. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft
are occurring north of 30N and west of 75W. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds south of 25N and
between 30W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 11N47W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and
seas of 5-8 ft are present east of 30W. Elsewhere in the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 75W through
today. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail elsewhere
across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S winds W of 65W.
High pressure north of the region will build SW into the NW
Bahamas tonight through Tue, then shift NE and weaken through Thu.
Fresh to strong winds across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
will prevail through Tue associated with the passage of a tropical
wave.

$$
ERA