205
AXNT20 KNHC 231016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): A broad area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, about 130 nm ENE of
Tampico, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to strong winds in the north and eastern quadrants, within
250 nm from the center. Peak seas in the NE quadrant are 9 ft.
Gradual development of this system is possible, and a short- lived
tropical depression could form before it reaches the coast of
northeastern Mexico today. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across portions of
northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas during the next day or
so. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours and in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis along 20W, south of 17N,
is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted near
the wave`s axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis along 40W, south of 13N, is
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 10N and between 37W and 45W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of
20N, moving westward near 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
wave`s axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing the storm
activity over eastern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing convective
activity S of 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W
to 07N53W. Aside from convection described above in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted within 120
nm of the ITCZ between 22W-36W and 47W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest AL93 centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends
southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the influence of
Invest AL93, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
evident over the Bay of Campeche. A few scattered showers are
evident south of a line from the Florida Keys to southern Texas,
while generally dry conditions are found north of this line.

For the forecast, outside of the influence of AL93 in the W Gulf,
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail E of 90W and
will diminish to gentle to moderate and slight seas tonight and to
light to gentle speeds on Sun through Wed. Conditions are
forecast to improve W of 90W Sun afternoon into Mon as the low
pressure system moves inland across Mexico. Weak high pressure
will reside over the E central Gulf Tue and Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater
Antilles and nearby waters. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere
in the basin. A 1023 mb high pressure system centered near
Bermuda forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean, west of 83W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft,
with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate or
weaker and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of
the Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate
seas over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate speeds today
and then prevail through the week, except for pulsing strong winds
at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Moderate to fresh
trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Tue night, pulsing to strong speeds at night near the
coast over the south- central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An extensive subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores
dominates the tropical Atlantic. Fresh SE winds and moderate seas
are noted N of 29N and W of 75W a low pressure center is N of the
area. A surface trough is analyzed between Bermuda and Puerto
Rico and a few showers are evident near the trough axis. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in western
Africa and the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally strong NE-E
winds south of a line from 31N25W to 20N50W and east of 50W. Seas
in these waters, as confirmed by a recent altimeter pass, are in
the 5-8 ft range. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh SE winds and moderate
seas will prevail across the waters N of 29N and W of 75W through
Mon as the low pressure N of the area moves northward. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail elsewhere across the
region through tonight. High pressure north of the region will
build SW into the NW Bahamas tonight through Tue, then shift NE
and weaken through Thu. Winds and seas will increase across the
waters E of the Lesser Antilles starting on Mon due to an
approaching tropical wave.

$$
ERA