783
AXNT20 KNHC 142238
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47.5W from 03-20N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 05-08N between 47-49W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58.5W from 19N
southward to Guyana, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
showers are seen near the wave axis, with thunderstorms ongoing
over portions of Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania from 1010 mb low pressure near 19.5N15.5W to 10N22W to
05N137W. The ITCZ extends from 05N137W to 06N46W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 06.5N48W to near the coast of
Suriname at 06N56.5W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N-10N between 20W-30W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00.5N-04.5N between 35W-45W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally south of 12N and west
of 81W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough digging southwest into the area continues
to produce scattered moderate convection over portions of the Gulf
east of 86W. In the SW and W-central Gulf, scattered showers are
present in convergent surface flow between a surface trough over
the western Bay of Campeche and high pressure inland over Mexico.
At the surface, a 1020 mb high pressure in the central Gulf near
26.5N88.5W is forcing moderate SE winds west of 92W, with gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west
of 91W, and 1 to 3 ft east of 91W.

For the forecast, weak high pressure continues across the NE
Gulf, producing gentle to moderate SE to S winds over the western
Gulf, and mainly light winds elsewhere. The high pressure will
drift slowly westward and into the NW Gulf by Wed. In the
meantime, elongated low pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast
is forecast to move westward across Florida during the next day or
so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tue. Environmental
conditions appear favorable and some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf
during the middle to latter part of this week. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds,
will accompany this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the region and the
1011 mb Colombia Low supports fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the south-central, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh trades are elsewhere in the central Caribbean as well as in
the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Mainly moderate
trades and 3 to 5 ft seas are in the eastern Caribbean, with
gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. Afternoon
thunderstorms are noted near the southern coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue N of the area along
29N tonight into Tue. This will support pulsing fresh to strong
trades and rough seas over the south central Caribbean through
Tue. These trades will expand across most of the central section
of the basin Wed through Fri night. Fresh east winds are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed night through Sat.
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the
eastern Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the NW portions.
A couple of tropical waves will move through the basin over the
next few days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated 1016 mb surface low center was analyzed near
29.5N78W. A middle to upper level low center is just north of the
area and is digging southward into the area, and providing
divergence aloft that supports scattered moderate to strong
convection from 24N-29N between Florida and 76W. To the east,
scattered showers dot the waters between 60W-73W due to an upper
level trough. A cold front is in the central Atlantic just north
of the discussion waters near 49W. Associated showers and
thunderstorms extend into the waters north of 30N between 43W and
50W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an
extensive subtropical ridge centered on a 1025 mb high near
29N54W, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas between 30W-60W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted 14N-30N between Africa and 30W. Winds
are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic waters, except south of the monsoon trough near the
coast of Africa where they are locally fresh. Seas are 2 to 4 ft
west of 67W, 3 to 4 ft from 26N-30N between 25W-57W along east to
west ridging extending from and through the high center, and 4 to
6 ft across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge will continue N of the
area along 29N tonight into Tue. This will support pulsing fresh
to strong trades and rough seas over the south central Caribbean
through Tue. These trades will expand across most of the central
section of the basin Wed through Fri night. Fresh east winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed night
through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected in the eastern Caribbean through the period while gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the
NW portions. A couple of tropical waves will move through the
basin over the next few days.

$$
Lewitsky