975
AXNT20 KNHC 270613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America:
Satellite imagery this evening reveals a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a developing Central American Gyre
(CAG) in Central America. Latest computer model guidance continues
to suggest high precipitation amounts through early next week. The
heaviest rainfall is forecast in Panama and Costa Rica through
Fri, then in the eastern sections of Honduras and Nicaragua Fri
into Sun as the CAG moves northwestward. Late this weekend and
early next week, heavy rain could shift over Belize, Guatemala and
southern Mexico. It is recommended that residents in the
aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from
their local meteorological weather agencies.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave (Invest AL95) is near 31N from
15N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Multiple weak
vortexes are seen near this wave in recent satellite imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 30W
and 40W. Environmental conditions will be conducive and there is
a moderate chance for a tropical depression to form well east of
the Windward Islands this weekend.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 19N southward,
and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 11N between 40W and 50W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave (Invest AL94) is near 79W from
just west of Jamaica southward across central Panama into the East
Pacific. It is moving westward around 20 kt. Aided by abundant
tropical moisture and a nearby upper-level trough, numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring at waters
surrounding Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are found farther south from 12N to 16N west of 74W. Moderate to
fresh E to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present at both areas.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
gradual tropical development during this weekend over the western
Caribbean Sea or southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves west-southwestward across
10N30W to 08N42W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N42W to
09N46W, then from 09N49W to 08N56W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident near and south of the trough from
04N to 11N between Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 19W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen farther west from 03N to 06N between
19W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad
surface ridge extends westward from a 1015 mb high at the
southeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE
to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the western and north-
central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
through Fri, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas
over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the western Gulf. Looking ahead, wind and
seas may increase over the southwestern Gulf Fri night through
Sun night as a strong tropical wave (AL94) reaches the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection and potential
for tropical cyclone formation. Outside the influence of the
tropical wave (AL94), gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near
25N73W and the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is
generating gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas at 3 to 5
ft at the eastern and northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds
with 2 to 4 ft seas are seen near Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds along with seas
to 8 ft trail the aforementioned tropical wave. As this wave
moves west of the basin by Fri, expect moderate to fresh trade
winds through Sun night, with the exception of light to gentle
winds over the southwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two surface troughs are found south of Bermuda near 27N63W and
near northwest Bahamas. Coupling with divergent winds southeast
of an upper-level trough, scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 25N between 61W and 74W. At the central Atlantic, a
broad upper-level low near 29N49W is inducing isolated
thunderstorms from 16N to 29N between 45W and 69W. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A broad surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1029 mb
Azores High across 31N45W to beyond the central Bahamas. Besides
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
north of 20N between 65W and 72W, the high is supporting gentle to
moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between
30W and the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 2
to 4 ft exist near the Bahamas and east of Florida to 72W. Near
the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 7 ft
seas are evident north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast
and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 20N between the
central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally
fresh N to NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present. Light
to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in
mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores High and related ridge
will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region
through early next week, producing mainly a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with moderate seas northeast of the Bahamas.
Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase from the Equator to
10N between 35W and 50W late Sat through Mon as a strong tropical
wave (AL95) approaches from the east.

$$

Chan