467
AXNT20 KNHC 211030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Invest Area (AL92): A small but
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms persists with an
area of low pressure located around 195 nm east of Jacksonville,
Florida. However, it is unclear if the system possesses a well-
defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain
marginally conducive for some additional development, and this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression as the low
moves west-northwestward at 10-15 kt. The system is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
later today, and interests there should monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later this morning, if necessary. This
system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through
48 hours and in 7 days.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A disturbance over southern Yucatan
is producing a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
affecting SE Mexico, Central America, northwestern and central
Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form
over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America later today.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and
a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward. This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours and in 7 days.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Strong high pressure near the Azores will
shift southeastward through this afternoon. A tight pressure
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures
in NW Africa sustains gale-force (Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind
Scale) with severe gusts for the marine zone of AGADIR through
21/18Z according to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas warning. Expect
rough seas with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France for more details at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 20W, south of 13N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 37W, south of
16N, is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 14N and between 34W and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W, south of
16N, is westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 11N and between 50W and 56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 66W, south of
17N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave over the Caribbean waters at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 07N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 41W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure over the eastern United States dominates the
Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressures in Mexico and Central America support fresh to
strong easterly winds over much of the western half of the basin,
with pulsing near-gale winds in the vicinity of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted elsewhere in the
basin. A disturbance centered over southern Yucatan is producing a
large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms that is
impacting the waters off NE Yucatan and the Yucatan Channel.
Fairly tranquil weather conditions are present in the remainder of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, W of 90W, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to
rough seas will prevail through Sat. A broad area of low pressure
is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central
America later today. E of 90W, moderate to fresh SE winds and
moderate seas will prevail through Sat, diminishing to light to
gentle winds and slight seas through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features for more details on the
disturbance over southern Yucatan.

A disturbance centered over southern Yucatan is producing a large
area of showers and isolated thunderstorms that covers much of the
NW and central Caribbean, especially west of 75W. The convective
activity is also impacting Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Central
America and SE Mexico. Drier conditions are found in the rest of
the basin.

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure system
positioned between Nova Scotia and Bermuda and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in fresh to strong E-SE winds in the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Fresh to
occasionally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident
in the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and
3-6 ft are noted in the eastern and rest of the NW Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale SE winds and rough seas over
the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and
moderate seas by Sat and prevail through Mon night, except for
pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Mon night, pulsing to strong speeds at night
over the south-central basin through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details about
Invest AL92 off NE Florida and Gale Warning in the Agadir zone.

A 1026 mb high pressure system centered between Nova Scotia and
Bermuda dominates the SW North Atlantic. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are noted south of 24N, along with seas of 4-6 ft.
Similar winds and seas are found north of 26N and between 55W and
70W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N44W to
27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of
the front and a trough, which is analyzed parallel to the front
and E of it.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb
high pressure system near the Azores. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa result in
fresh to near gale-force N winds north of 16N and east of 27W.
Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring south of 27N. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of AL92,
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will prevail across
the waters N of 28N through early Fri. Afterward, high pressure
will build in the wake of the low, supporting gentle to moderate
winds through Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are
forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters, the approaches to the
Windward Passage and the Great Bahama Bank through Sat night.

$$
ERA