711
AXNT20 KNHC 150906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some areas of
South Florida, and the waters from the central Bahamas northward
from there and also over the waters north of 25N and west of 70W:
A persistent surface trough trails southwestward from low pressure
(Invest AL90) that is centered well north of the area offshore the
U.S. southeastern coast, southwestward to inland central Florida,
and continues southwestward to the Yucatan Peninsula. Southerly
winds east of the trough are advecting ample deep tropical
moisture across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, South Florida,
the Bahamas and northward. Aided by a mid to upper- level trough
that just northwest of the surface trough, periods of scattered
heavy showers and strong thunderstorms continue for most areas of
the above mentioned locations. Conditions are expected to improve
in South Florida today, but showers and thunderstorms may linger
over the Atlantic waters off South Florida to the NW and central
Bahamas and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest
of the weekend. Anticipate dangerous cloud to surface lightning,
strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility with the
strongest activity. Mariners transiting these regions should
exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from
your local weather forecast offices for specific local
information.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) continues to develop. Widespread
deep convection driven by the CAG is expected this weekend through
next Friday, June 21. With persistent moist onshore flow, the
heaviest rainfall totals with this event are expected along the
Pacific coast of Chiapas State of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El
Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua. With this heavy rainfall,
life- threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in areas,
especially in hilly terrains. Please refer to bulletins and
forecasts from your local weather forecast and emergency
management offices for specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa tonight
and has been added to the map with axis near 17.5W. The wave is
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 12W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 03N
to 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant
convection is present.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 73W south of
15N to inland eastern Colombia, moving westward around 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted S of 13N
within 60 nm of the wave axis. This wave is forecast to become
absorbed into the CAG discussed in the Special Features section
during the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters passes off the coast of Africa near
15N17W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N46W. It
resumes from 06N49W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 20W
and 30W, and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 30W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing heavy rainfall over the far southeastern Gulf.

A surface trough extends from central Florida to near the Yucatan
peninsula. Active convection is ongoing over the SE Gulf. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf waters. Seas are in the
2-4 ft W of 90W and 1-3 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will dissipate today.
A Central American Gyre will continue to develop this weekend.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical cyclone
to develop from this broad area of low pressure, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf during the middle
part of next week. Active convection, along with increasing winds
and building seas are expected with this system in the early to
mid part of next week, mainly impacting the south- central and
northwest Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over much of the
Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the
eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, a Central American Gyre will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the western and
northwestern Caribbean over the next few days. Expect increasing
winds and building seas over the western Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Honduras, this weekend in association with the gyre.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing heavy rainfall and hazardous marine conditions
for waters near southeastern Florida and also near the NW and
central Bahamas.

A trough extends from 31N76W to inland central Florida. Deep
atmospheric moisture is present to the southeast trough. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are noted west of about 70W, with this
activity extending over the Straits of Florida and to sections of
central and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 6 ft
seas are east of the trough to near 70W and N of 29N. To the east,
a weak surface trough extends from near 25N59W to 20N65W. Another
weak surface trough extends from near 28N49W to 22N53W, and yet
another weak surface trough is analyzed along 68W from 21N to 25N.
No significant convection is presently occurring with these
features. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the basin west
of 35W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail east of 35W, except for
fresh to strong northeast winds from the Cabo Verde Islands to the
Canary Islands, including along the coast of Africa. Seas are 6
to 8 ft across this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms persist east of a trough reaching from roughly
31N76W to central Florida. Gusty winds, higher seas and frequent
lightning will be possible with this convective activity. The
trough will shift to the east of the region through early next
week. Looking ahead, expect fresh E winds west of 70W by late Tue
as high pressure builds north of the area.

$$
AL