824
AXNT20 KNHC 211647
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Sep 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall in Central America:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) is forecast to gradually develop
over Central America through this weekend, near Costa Rica and
Panama. It will slowly drift NW across Nicaragua, Honduras, and
the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle of next week. Aided by
abundant tropical moisture, this system may produce significant
rainfall near Panama through this weekend, then Costa Rica and
eastern Nicaragua late on Sunday through early next week.
Afterward, heavy rain may spread over central and northern
Guatemala and western Honduras during the first half of next week,
and into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula late next week. This
will lead to an increased potential for life- threatening flash
flooding and mudslides in these areas. It is recommended that
residents in the aforementioned areas stay alert on the latest
information from their local meteorological agencies. Please refer
to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific at
website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for rainfall across
El Salvador and the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 13N16W, then extends to 08N35W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N35W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N to 12N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle easterly winds and slight seas prevail across the
Gulf of Mexico, due to high pressure centered over the SE United
States.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next
week. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early
to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico
through the end of next week. There is a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next seven days. Regardless of
development, winds and seas will start increasing across the SE
Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for potential
heavy rainfall and already increasing convection associated with
a developing Central American Gyre (CAG).

Gentle to moderate trades with seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is in the western
Caribbean, from 12N to 18N between 77W and 84W, and in the central
Caribbean from 12N to 16N between 73W and 75W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected across the E and central Caribbean tonight. A broad area
of low pressure is likely to form by the early to middle part of
next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent
portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of
this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as
the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico through
the end of next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation in the next seven days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough enters the W Atlantic near 31N73W and extends
across the central Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N78W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 25N to 31N between 68W and 72W ahead
of the trough. Scatterometer data this morning depicts light winds
near the trough.

1008 mb low pressure (AL96) is centered near 26N55W, and
producing scattered moderate convection within 150 nm NE of the
center. Winds in this region are near fresh speeds. Environmental conditions
do not appear conducive for significant development of this
system during the next couple of days while it drifts slowly
northwestward and then northward over the central or western
subtropical Atlantic.

1005 mb low pressure (Remnants of Gordon) is centered near 26N42W.
Fresh to strong winds and 6-9 ft seas are within 180 nm of the
center of the low pressure, mainly confined to the eastern and
northern semicircles. No significant convection is noted at this
time. Significant development of this system is not expected while
it moves slowly northwestward over the central subtropical
Atlantic during the next couple of days.

1014 mb high pressure is centered near 13N50W, and another 1014 mb
high pressure is centered near 30N66W. Scattered showers are noted
across the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6
ft prevail across open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak cold front will
move off the SE coast of the US tonight and slowly move across
the waters N of 25N into Mon night.

$$
Mahoney