411
AXNT20 KNHC 140900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, portions of
the Florida Peninsula, and the western Atlantic west of 72W:
Ample deep tropical moisture continues to advect northeastward
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to over South Florida as
well as to over sections of central Florida and to across the
western Atlantic waters, reaching eastward to near 72W. The
persistent pattern of a surface trough that trails southwestward
from low pressure N of the area (Invest Al90) that is now near
32N75W to across central Florida and to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula combined with a broad mid to upper- level trough that is
to the northwest of the surface trough will continue to sustain
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the southeast of the surface
trough impacting the aforementioned areas through at least
tonight. This activity will be accompanied by cloud to surface
lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility.
Mariners transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast
offices for specific local information.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) continues to develop. Observations
are indicating that heavy rainfall is already occurring before the
main event that is forecast to begin this weekend through the
morning of Friday June 21. The persistent moist onshore flow in
the Pacific basins of Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras and in El
Salvador will favor 3-4 days of intermittent rounds of heavy
precipitation. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your
local weather forecast offices for specific local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave analyzed over western Africa on the 00 UTC map
has been removed from the 06 UTC surface analysis and will be re-
introduced once the tropical wave has fully emerged into the far
eastern Atlantic. Active convection associated with this wave is
impacting portions of western Africa, extending offshore to near
20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W from 02N
to 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is occurring with this wave as it is moving through a dry and
stable environment.

The Atlantic tropical wave analyzed near 55W on the 00 UTC
surface analysis has been removed from the 06 UTC analysis as it
has become unidentifiable.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W south of 15N to
inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No
deep convection is noted with this wave over the Caribbean. This
wave is expected to become absorbed into the CAG (discussed in the
Special Features section above) this weekend.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has been removed from the
surface analysis as it has started to get absorbed into the
developing CAG described under Special Features.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to
05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 07N38W and resumes from
07N40W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 10W and 20W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 44W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing heavy rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico and on an upcoming heavy rainfall event to impact some
areas of southeastern Mexico.

A surface trough extends from central Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula. Active convection continues ahead of this trough over
the SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf, withe
gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3
ft range across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will gradually weaken
through late today. A Central American Gyre is forecast to
develop over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for a tropical cyclone to develop from this broad
area of low pressure, and a tropical depression could form over
the southwestern Gulf during the early or middle part of next
week. Active convection, along with increasing winds and building
seas are expected with this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about the upcoming heavy rainfall event over Central
America.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are over the north central Caribbean as
well as the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over
the eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the
central Caribbean, 4-5 ft over the western Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across
the south- central Caribbean today. Moderate to fresh southeast
winds are expected over the northwestern Caribbean today.
Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the western and northwestern Caribbean over the next
few days as a Central American Gyre develops. Expect increasing
winds and building seas over the western Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Honduras, over the upcoming weekend as the gyre develops.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about the heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic
and over portions of the Florida peninsula.

A trough extends southwestward from low pressure N of the area to
inland central Florida. Deep atmospheric is present to the
southeast trough. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted
west of about 72W, with this activity extending over the Straits
of Florida and to sections of central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are east of the trough to near 72W and N of
29N. To the east of the surface trough, broad troughing prevails
to near 45W, while high pressure prevails E of 45W. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the basin west
of 35W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail east of 35W, except for
fresh to strong northeast winds from the Cabo Verde Islands to the
Canary Islands, including along the coast of Africa. Seas are 5
to 7 ft across this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the showers and thunderstorms
associated with the system discussed above will impact the waters
W of 70W over the next day or so. Gusty winds, higher seas and
frequent lightning will be possible with this convective activity.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the western
Atlantic ahead of this system through tonight. As the low center
moves further from the area, high pressure will build southward
over the western Atlantic this weekend into early next week.

$$
AL