450
AXNT20 KNHC 230539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0525 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): A broad area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, about 130 nm ENE of
Tampico, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to strong winds in the north and eastern quadrants, within
250 nm from the center. Peak seas in the NE quadrant are 9 ft.
Gradual development of this system is possible, and a short- lived
tropical depression could form before it reaches the coast of
northeastern Mexico tonight. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across portions of
northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas during the next day or
so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary. This system has
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours
and in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along
18W, south of 17N, based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostic
data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are
observed near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 13N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 10N and between 30W and 48W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 16N, moving
westward near 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing the storm
activity over eastern Venezuela.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing the storm
activity in Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 09N22W
to 06N37W and from 07N39W to 06N51W. Aside from convection
described above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate
convection is seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W
and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest 93L centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends
southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the influence of
Invest 93L, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent. A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
that developed earlier today over the Yucatan peninsula is moving
over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Heavy downpours and gusty winds
are likely with these storms. A few scattered showers are evident
south of a line from the Florida Keys to southern Texas, while
generally dry conditions are found north of this line.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico is producing poorly organized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form before the system reaches the coast
of northeastern Mexico Sunday night. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across
portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas through the
end of the weekend. This system has helped produce gale-force
winds near portions of the coast of eastern Mexico, which are
expected to diminish this evening. Moderate to fresh winds and
moderate seas prevail E of 90W and will diminish to gentle to
moderate and slight seas tonight and to light to gentle speeds on
Sun through Wed. Conditions are forecast to improve W of 90W Sun
afternoon into Mon as the low pressure system moves inland across
Mexico. Weak high pressure will reside over the E central Gulf Tue
and Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater
Antilles and nearby waters. Strong storms are affecting SE Mexico
and Guatemala, producing heavy downpours and increasing the risk
of flash flooding. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere in the
basin. A 1024 mb high pressure system centered near Bermuda forces
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean and NW Caribbean, west of 83W. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW
Colombia. Moderate or weaker and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, a 1024 mb high pressure center is located near
Bermuda extending westward into the SE U.S. while broad low
pressure, AL93, is across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh
E to SE winds and moderate seas over the NW Caribbean tonight
will diminish to moderate speeds on Sun and then prevail through
Thu, except for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night,
pulsing to strong speeds at night near the coast over the south-
central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An extensive subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores
dominates the tropical Atlantic. A surface trough is analyzed
between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and a few showers are evident near
the trough axis. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics sustain fresh to
locally strong NE-E winds south of a line from 31N25W to 20N50W
and east of 50W. Seas in these waters, as confirmed by a recent
altimeter pass, are in the 5-8 ft range. In the rest of the
tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SE winds and moderate seas
will prevail across the waters N of 29N and W of 75W tonight as
low pressure persists near the SE U.S. coast, then become fresh
from the S to SW Sun night through Mon as the low pressure moves
northward. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail
elsewhere across the region through Sun night. High pressure
north of the region will build SW into the NW Bahamas Sun night
through Tue, then shift NE and weaken through Thu. Winds and seas
will increase across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles starting
on Mon due to an approaching tropical wave.

$$
Delgado