403
AXNT20 KNHC 172323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:
A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 29N50W. A stationary front
extends eastward from the low to beyond 31N37W and westward to
26N53W to 31N63W. Strong to near gale NE to E winds and seas of 12
ft seas are occurring within 180 NM of the NW semicircle. Peak
seas are 14 ft near 30N52W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted north of 27N between 45W-49W. The system will
only gradually weaken as it moves slowly toward the southwest.
Winds will drop below near gale and seas below 12 ft by Wed night.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 19N southward
moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant deep convection is
occurring in association with this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 19N southward
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 10N-15N west of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the coast of Senegal near 13N16W and
extends to 12N45W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from
07N-13N east of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the Gulf coast from E Texas to
the Florida peninsula. Isolated moderate convection is noted
within 60 NM of the coast from Louisiana to NW Florida.
Additionally scattered moderate convection is located from 21N-24N
west of 93W. Elsewhere across the Gulf away from the convection,
winds are light to gentle and seas 1-2 ft.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will
support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas through
Fri. Moderate to locally fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of
Campeche nightly through Fri. A cold front moving through the NE
Gulf late week will support moderate NE winds. High pressure in
the wake of the front will build across the Gulf waters during the
upcoming weekend producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high at 25N67W and
lower pressure over N South America and Central America is forcing
fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean and gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the central
Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered near 24N66W and the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across
the central Caribbean through early Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will occur across the E and central
Caribbean, with the exception of light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas across the NW and SW portions of the basin.
Moderate to locally fresh winds may pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
nightly through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section for details about the
Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event/the 1008 mb low
pressure center that is near 29N50W.

A vigorous mid to upper-level trough over the SE United States is
supporting a stationary front that extends from 31N76W to 27N80W
along the S Florida peninsula. The upper trough and stationary
front a forcing numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
north of 25N between 68W-76W. Farther east, the 1008 mb remnant
low of Gordon is at 30N50W. While it has scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection within 240 NM of the center in its S
semicircle, peak winds are only fresh to strong. Elsewhere, due to
a northward displacement of the Bermuda High, winds across the
basin are only gentle to moderate. Seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the feature described above, expect
pulsing fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola through Thu.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail across the rest of the basin.

$$
Landsea