394
AXNT20 KNHC 181709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One) is near 21.8N 92.7W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
999 mb.. Seas are peaking near 16 ft within 330 nm NE of the
system center. The broad wind field associated with this
disturbance is generating tropical storm force winds extending
outward up to 250 nm northeast of the system center. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is observed over much of
the waters west of 73W in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy rains are impacting portions of southern Mexico, Central
America, western Cuba, Cayman Islands and Jamaica. A general
northward motion will continue into tonight before a gradual turn
toward the west. On this track, the center will be near
northeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.

The broad system will continue to produce heavy rainfall across
southern Mexico and western Central America during the next few
days as abundant moisture continues to advect into the region.
The heavy rains will expand toward Texas and NE Mexico in the
next couple of days. The threat to life and property continues to
increase as the event continues.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry airmass
that is suppressing the shower activity near the axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are evident near
the northern end of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N28W and
to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 08N59W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 13N
and east of 27W. Scattered showers are present from 07N to 16N and
between 56W and the Lesser Antilles.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

PTC One covers most of the Gulf of Mexico, producing numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms except in the NE Gulf and west
of 945. Aside from the area of 35 kt winds, strong to near-gale
force winds cover much of the waters W of 83W, with fresh to
strong winds E of 83W. Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater
seas discussed above, seas of 8-12 ft cover much of the waters N
of 21N and W of 85W, with seas of 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 21.8N 92.7W
at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. One will move to 22.5N 93.3W this evening,
23.0N 95.2W Wed morning, 23.3N 97.5W Wed evening, inland to 23.3N
100.3W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

The broad nature of PTC One is resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the central and NW Caribbean Sea. The
broad wind field around PTC one is supporting fresh to locally
near gale-force SE winds in the NW Caribbean, especially west of
81W. Stronger gusts are possible with the strongest convection.
Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the south- central
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad circulation around Potential Tropical
Cyclone One will continue to support fresh to near gale-force SE
winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW
Caribbean through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades over
the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds by
midweek and prevail through late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough is passing north of the NW Bahamas,
producing light showers north of 27N and west of 75W. Farther
east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N51W and
continues southwestward to 29N57W, followed by a surface trough to
Hispaniola. A 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed along the surface
trough near 26N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring within 150 nm on both sides of the cold
front and surface trough. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that fresh to strong NE-E winds are occurring west of
the cold front and surface trough and north of 26N. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft.

The remainder of the area is dominated by broad ridging, anchored
by a 1032 mb high pressure system in the far NE Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW
Atlantic sustain fresh to locally strong N-NE winds north of the
monsoon trough to 28N and east of 30W. Seas in the area described
are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist N of 20N between 60W-70W in the vicinity of
a cold front/surface trough/low pres system analyzed from 31N52W
to 26N64W to 20N70W. Environmental conditions could be conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the next few
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is
forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States
on Friday. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and
rough seas will prevail across the waters N of 25N through Thu.

$$
Delgado