455
AXNT20 KNHC 312101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from
11N southward, and moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection is
described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 12N
southward, and moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N to 13N between 42W and 53W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 73W from 18N
southward, and moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N13W to
06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N33W to 08N45W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 10N east of
24W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 33W
and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas in the 3-5 ft range
prevail W of 90W, and 2-3 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
at least Sun, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the
western Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern
Gulf. Due to local effects, fresh to strong NE to E winds will
pulse near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan
peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through Sun.
Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and
Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days
reducing visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh winds prevail over the waters S of 15N between 67W and 72W
as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in the south
central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and low pressure near Colombia is
supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will increase tonight
into Sat as high pressure north of the area strengthens some. This
will lead to fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean Sat through early Mon, with seas building to around 9
ft. Winds will slightly diminish by early next week.

Looking ahead, the potential for heavy rains returns next week
across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeast and central Bahamas. Localized flooding is
possible, especially where the ground remains very moist from
recent heavy rain events.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N67W to 27N72W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm SE of the front. Fresh to strong winds
are found W of the front. A stationary front extends from 31N23W
to 24N39W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail over the waters
N of 20N, with moderate winds S of 20N. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range across the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, a reinforcing frontal boundary will
move eastward across the forecast waters reaching from 31N60W to
the SE Bahamas by Sat morning, becoming nearly stationary along
25N on Sun. High pressure building in behind the front will
tighten the pressure gradient across the region, bringing fresh to
locally strong winds across waters north of 24N, along with
building seas to around 8 ft E of the Bahamas. Marine conditions
will slightly improve across the forecast area by early next week.

$$
AL