562
AXNT20 KNHC 311640
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 12N southward,
and moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N to 13N between 45W and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 18N near Cabo Rojo,
Repblica Dominicana southward across Lago de Maracaibo, and
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N13W to
06N25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N
to 10N east of 23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N31W to 08N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 32W and
38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line with embedded strong thunderstorms moved off the
Texas coast and into the NW Gulf earlier this morning. As of 1500
UTC, the squall line extends from 30N93W near the Texas/Louisiana
border to 27N97W near Corpus Christi, Texas. Buoy 42019 reported
wind gusts to gale force as the squall line moved through.

Elsewhere, the large scale (synoptic) conditions across the Gulf
of Mexico are characterized by weak high pressure ridging. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds prevail, with locally fresh SE winds in
the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3-6 ft west of 90W, and 1-3 ft east
of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging will prevail across the
Gulf waters through at least Sun, supporting moderate to fresh
winds mainly over the western Gulf due to the pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and western portions
of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night
through Sun. Haze due to agricultural fires over Central America
and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days and
may reduce visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section above.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident on
satellite imagery in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 12N between 76W
and 82W, likely enhanced by the extension of the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across most of the
Caribbean, with 4-7 ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, trades are
light gentle with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and low pressure near Colombia will
continue support fresh to locally strong trade winds over the
south- central Caribbean today. The pressure gradient will
increase tonight into Sat as high pressure north of the area
strengthens some. This will lead to fresh to strong trade winds
across the central basin Sat through early Mon, with seas building
to around 9 ft. Winds will slightly diminish by early next week.
Looking ahead, the potential for heavy rains returns next week across
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the
southeast and central Bahamas. Localized flooding is possible,
especially where the ground remains very moist from recent heavy
rain events.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the tropical waves section above.

In the W Atlantic, a decaying cold front is from 31N69W to 27N74W.
Ahead of the boundary, scattered moderate convection is from 25N
to 28N between 66W and 70W. In the east and central Atlantic, a
weak cold front extends from 31N23W to 24N38W where a surface
trough then continues to 31N51W. 1020 mb high pressures are
centered near 23N31W and 26N51W. These high pressures provide for
gentle to moderate trades across the tropical Atlantic, with 4-6
ft seas.

For the forecast, a frontal trough will move eastward across the
forecast waters through Sun. High pressure building in behind the
frontal trough will tighten the pressure gradient across the
region, bringing moderate to fresh winds and across waters north
of 24N, along with building seas E of the Bahamas. Marine
conditions will slightly improve across the waters by early next
week.

$$
Mahoney