082
AXNT20 KNHC 111108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico:
Abundant tropical moisture surging northward across the western
Caribbean, combined with middle to upper-level diffluent flow
continues to support the development of showers and thunderstorms
in the far NW Caribbean Sea (N of 20N west of 80W) and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty
winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within
this convective activity over these areas. This convection will
amplify as it shifts across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida
Straits through Fri. Mariners transiting these regions should
exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from
your local weather forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends from 02N to 17N
with axis near 24W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. There is no
convection associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean S of 13N with
axis near 62W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are ongoing over the SE Caribbean S of 16N
between the Lesser Antilles and 68W.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea along 74W,
south of 14N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is S of 13N between 73W and 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N28W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 06N43W to 09N60W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 08N between 27W and
36W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 04N to 10N
between 10W and 20W, and from 01N to 10N W of 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Light concentration of smoke continue over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural fires,
creating hazy conditions. Moisture inflow from the Caribbean along
with upper-level diffluence continue to support scattered heavy
showers and tstms over the SE Gulf. Aside the shower activity,
moderate to fresh SW winds are ongoing over that region along with
moderate seas. Light to gentle variable winds and slight seas are
ongoing elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh S to SW winds will prevail over the SE basin being enhanced
by an amplifying area of convection moving to the region from the
NW Caribbean. These enhanced winds will continue through Thu just SE
of a weak surface trough. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to
around 3 nm at times, mainly over the far western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and associated
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to
strong trade winds over the central basin and moderate to fresh E
to SE winds elsewhere. Seas 7-8 ft over the central Caribbean and
4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue across portions of the NW Caribbean N of 20N
and W of 80W through the end of the week. Dangerous lightning,
gusty winds and rough seas are likely over this region the next
several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will
prevail across the eastern, central and NW Caribbean through the
forecast period, pulsing to strong speeds over the central basin
through Thu evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in the
continuation of scattered heavy showers and tstms over the SE
Florida Seaboard as well as N of 27N between 70W and 80W. The
pressure gradient between the Bermuda subtropical ridge and a
stationary front off the SE United States support moderate to
locally fresh SW winds north of 27N and west of 65W. Seas in
these waters are 3-5 ft. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting mainly
fresh NE winds between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde
Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing in the tropical
central Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure centered SE of
Bermuda and associated ridging will prevail across the region
through Thu, then gradually weaken and shift slightly eastward
through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds over
the NE Florida offshore waters will reach fresh to strong speeds
tonight through Wed. A low pressure will develop off the coast of
NE Florida Wed and lift N of the area over the weekend. This low
will continue to support moderate to fresh winds over the NW
offshores through the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
are expected.

$$
Ramos