373
ABNT20 KNHC 211746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a
well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles
east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary
organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone.
Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low.  Only a
small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms
could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression
before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia
tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress.  For more
information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche by this evening.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression
could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.  Local National
Weather Service forecasts can be found at www.weather.gov.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg