Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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686 FXUS61 KBGM 241053 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 653 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Relief from the heat has arrived behind a cold front this morning, though scattered rain showers will affect much of central New York through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s today, and will warm back to the 80s on Tuesday. Another cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the area on Wednesday. Dry and fair weather will prevail Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 4 AM Update... A cold front has pushed east of the area this morning, bringing breezy west to northwest winds and lowering temperatures and dewpoints across the region. In other words, relief from the heat and humidity is here. However, a rather sharp upper level trough will swing through the region today, as an associated surface low moves across northern NY. This will bring plenty of clouds and showers to the area, though Central NY will be favored for shower coverage. Partial clearing will push into the Finger Lakes and areas roughly west of I-81 by early afternoon, with showers pulling out of eastern areas by evening. Enough weak instability will develop for some isolated and weak embedded thunderstorms, especially as the trough axis moves through. Surface high pressure builds in overnight, and light winds/clear skies will be ideal for radiational cooling. Temperatures will drop into the 50s. Despite the lower humidity, valley fog is expected to develop, especially along the Susquehanna River in NY and its upper tributaries, where showers will be most prevalent today. Fair weather and warmer temperatures can be expected on Tuesday as high pressure settles east of the area, and southwest flow returns. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s, but dewpoints will be in 50s, yielding heat index values at or slightly below ambient temps. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update... The ridge breaks down Tuesday night, bringing zonal flow aloft and SW flow in the low levels. Warm moist air returns to the region thanks to this pattern, with overnight lows only falling into the mid to upper 60s. A weak shortwave looks to push into the area overnight, bringing a chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms from Oneida county to the Finger Lakes. Confidence in the showers developing is low given a lack of deep moisture and the surface high still strong enough to influence weather of the CWA. Best chance for precip will be north of the Thruway, but showers across CNY cannot be ruled out. The next chance for severe weather arrives Wednesday afternoon. A positively tilted trough will dig into the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes during the late overnight and morning hours. The path and tilt of this trough will keep winds mostly WSW over the area, not allowing the hottest air from the south to make it into the CWA. Rather, it moves into the Mid- Atlantic and up the coast into Southern New England. The Twin Tiers, NEPA and the southern Catskills will still climb into the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This allows for CAPE to climb into the 2000-2500 j/kg range over this area with 1000-1500 j/kg to the north. Bulk shear values are also modeled strong, between 35-45kts out of the SW. A mid level shortwave will be the main driver of afternoon showers and storms and how far south this feature is as it crosses the CWA will determine the area with the highest chances for severe weather. Currently, guidance has it crossing central PA into southern NY. This puts the Twin Tiers, NEPA and southern Catskills in the severe weather Goldilocks zone. A shift north or south of the shortwave would thus move this zone according, so we will be paying close attention to it. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain through the overnight hours as the cold front associated with the trough moves through the area. This is another feature we will be watching closely as guidance has sped up its arrival into the CWA over the past couple of days and if it can sync up a little better with the shortwave ahead of it, severe chances will increase across the area. With the front pushing through during the early overnight hours, temps will fall into the mid to upper 50s over NY and low to mid 60s over PA. A strong ridge will build into the region Thursday, bringing NW flow and a shot of Canadian air, keeping temperatures cool and skies mostly clear. Highs will be in the 70s, with very low humidity. The high pressure center moves right over the CWA Thursday night, allowing for efficient radiational cooling that push temps down into the the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 400 AM Update... High pressure holds on through Friday, bringing a very nice end to the work week. The weekend sees a return to active weather unfortunately as a positively tilted upper level trough moves into the region from the Great Lakes. A warm front and shortwave pushing through Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday will allow for rain and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lower ceilings have wrapped into the area ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Expect MVFR to fuel-alt ceilings to persist for a few hours then gradually improve through the morning hours, with VFR persisting by afternoon. Scattered rain showers will drop visby to 4 to 6SM at times through early afternoon. High pressure will bring drier conditions and clearing skies through the overnight hours. Valley fog is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning, especially in areas that receive the most showers today. ELM is tricky...rain showers will mainly be focused to the east today, but with radiational cooling, temps should still drop to the saturation point, so light fog/mist seems warranted at this time despite low confidence in greater restrictions. Winds will be a little breezy through late morning, generally NW 12 to 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots at times. Outlook... Tuesday...VFR likely, except valley fog Tuesday morning. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MPH SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...BTL/MPH