007
FXUS61 KBGM 251841
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
241 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers are expected today, with rain chances
increasing tonight as a cold front approaches the area. Rain
will come to an end from west to east on Thursday. High
pressure and drier weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1000 AM Update:

The forecast remains largely on track and only made some minor
adjustments to PoPs and sky cover. Previous discussion remains
valid.

330 AM Update...

Surface analysis places a warm front across far western PA this
morning. This front will slowly push east and northeast today,
fighting against a ridge of high pressure over New England.
Meanwhile aloft, a deep trough has dug out over the Midwest,
with a closed mid-level low developing over the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Moisture-rich southwesterly flow extends ahead of the
trough across the Appalachians into PA and NY, with several
embedded shortwave troughs. Weak disturbances will continue to
ripple through the area today and tonight, bringing periods of
enhanced rain shower coverage to the area, and perhaps some
isolated thunderstorms.

Showers look to remain spotty through the early morning hours
with a lack of forcing, but will increase across NEPA later this
morning, and in Central NY this afternoon and evening.

The cutoff low will wander towards the Missouri Bootheel
tonight, while the northern stream trough splits and progresses
north of the Great Lakes. This trough will move across southern
Quebec tonight into Thursday, dragging a weak cold front along
with it. Shower chances will increase as the front moves through
late tonight into Thursday. Drier air looks to filter into
western areas of the CWA Thursday afternoon, but the front may
slow down a bit as it approaches the coast, allowing shower
chances to linger across the Catskills and NEPA into Thursday
evening. A few stronger thunderstorms may be possible across
the Catskills and Poconos should the front stall down enough, as
enhanced mid-level flow will lead to higher bulk shear values.
Total rainfall through the period is not expected to be
excessive.

Temperatures today will be a couple degrees below normal, and
returning to near normal on Thursday across the western half of
the area, as precip pushes east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

230 PM Update...

High pressure drop south out of Canada on Friday, leading to
mostly dry conditions. However, models have been trying to sneak
some moisture into NE PA Friday evening through Saturday
morning. The broad upper low near the mid- Mississippi River
valley absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Helene and a weak
shortwave rotating around this low could come far enough north
to produce some spotty showers, but PoPs are generally under
30% through Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights
are again mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

240 PM Update...

Sunday into Tuesday will be dominated by large ridge of high
pressure. This high pressure system should prevent the
aforementioned upper low from coming any further north and it
exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night.

The next chance for any rainfall will come towards the end of
the forecast period as a cold front may drop far enough
southward to push across Central NY. However, at this time
confidence is too low on the timing and position of this front,
so have kept PoPs below 50% at this time. If this front does
push through the region, expect cool conditions mid week onward
with the potential for frost Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low clouds across much of the area continues to bring MVFR to
Fuel Alternate ceilings this afternoon. As showers move in from
the south, these low ceilings will remain along with some
lowering visbys as well in any steadier rain. Isolated thunder
is possible, but probabilities are too low to include in the
TAFs at this time. Overnight ceilings will drop back to Fuel
Alternate to IFR with showers continuing. A slow improvement is
expected from west to east late Thursday morning/early Thursday
afternoon as showers depart the area to the east.

.Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...Some lingering MVFR to Fuel Alternate
ceilings early, then gradually becoming VFR from west to east
late.

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but valley fog is
possible at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...BJG