313
FXUS61 KBGM 251801
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
201 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will feature mainly sunny and warmer weather, with
afternoon temperatures back up into the 80s. Wednesday has a
chance at seeing scattered severe thunderstorms once again with
best chances in the Southern Tier and Northeast PA during the
afternoon and evening hours. Dry weather returns for Thursday
and Friday with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
200 PM Update...

A first guess for PoPs was made to this update for the overnight
hours. A line of showers may move through this evening, though
model soundings are dry. The better chance for scattered showers
and even isolated thunderstorms will be overnight but this
should be limited to CNY.

925 AM Update...

The updates made during the previous forecast were good ones as
little change was needed during this update. High clouds are
moving in from the convective system over central Great Lakes
region. Sky cover was updated to reflect this, which does
increase sky cover from the north earlier than previously
forecasted. Otherwise, as mentioned, the forecast was doing well
and needed no additional changes.

640 AM Update

Touched up the forecast based on the cooler start this morning
and sky cover was adjusted slightly based on the latest visible
loop. Overall, the near term forecast remains on track. The one
challenge for today will be how thick and extensive the cloud
cover becomes by late afternoon and early evening; for now kept
it partly sunny for most locations, but it may lean more toward
mostly cloudy after 5-6 PM across the Finger lakes and Syracuse
area as the clouds race in.

340 AM Update

Clear skies and a cool start early this morning, with
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to around 60 degrees.
There is some patchy valley fog across Otsego, Delaware,
Sullivan and Chenango counties. This fog will burn off and
dissipate by around 8 AM. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny
this morning, with thin cirrus clouds arriving by midday. These
cirrus clouds will get thicker and lower to mid level clouds by
late afternoon and early evening...as the remnants of the
current large MCV over the west-central Great Lakes pushes
overhead. There could be a few light showers by this evening,
but initially there is a lot of low level dry air in place to
overcome, as afternoon dew points are only progged to be in the
low to mid-50s, with temperatures well into the 80s expected.

Low level moisture gradually increases after sunset, along with
instability inching up. This will open the door for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight as a weak warm
frontal system moves into the area. This will become a
stationary front late tonight, bisecting across the forecast
area...the exact position of this boundary is unknown at this
time...but some guidance puts it close to the NY/PA border by
daybreak Wednesday. Much warmer tonight with lows in the 60s and
even a few spots near 70.

Wednesday looks to start off relatively quiet, with the above
mentioned remnant front over the region. The frontal boundary
should lift back north some during the day; allowing for
increasing heat, humidity and instability across NE PA, the
Twin Tiers and perhaps as far north as the I-90 corridor. The
areal extent and intensity of any severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening will depend greatly on this warm frontal
position and therefore the amount of instability present over
the forecast area. With current NBM model guidance suggesting
highs reaching well into the 80s and even some lower 90s in the
Wyoming Valley this will bring plenty of surface heating to the
region and steep low level lapse rates. South of the warm front,
surface dew points are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low
60s...with only upper 50s to low 60s for dew points north of the
front. This drier air mass across the northern portion of the
CWA will limit instability. SPC has most of the area under at
least a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with a slight risk from
near Binghamton south and east across the southern Catskills
and NE PA. Again, the details on these thunderstorms are still
uncertain when it comes to exact mixed layer CAPE values. Deep
layer shear looks favorable with 40-50 kts in the 0-6 km layer.
With PWATS between 1.6 to 1.9 inch range Wednesday evening there
will also be a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from heavy
thunderstorms over most of the area and this is something else
that will need to be watched as we get closer in time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM Update...

Cold front continues to move through Wednesday night as surface low
pressure system tracks east. The track of the low will determine the
amount of instability that will be present overnight. At this time
model guidance suggests conditions will wind down with some elevated
instability lingering. Therefore rain showers are mainly expected
with possible elevated thunderstorms. Behind the front temperatures
will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s overnight. As the upper level
trough tracks east model guidance shows a potential wave of moisture
moving through on Thursday. This may allow the chances for some
showers to continue through Thursday morning although NBM kept
conditions dry for now. Otherwise better chances for dry conditions
is Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper level ridge attempts to
build in with high pressure at the surface. Temperatures are
expected to range in the 70s for CNY with some areas in NEPA
climbing into the low 80s. With clear skies temperatures overnight
will fall into the upper 40s to low mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
310 AM Update...

High pressure centers over our region on Friday allowing calm and
dry conditions to continue. Another system approaches from the west
just in time for the weekend as upper level trough dips into our
area. This increases chances for showers and storms Saturday and
Sunday, possibly into Monday as well if upper trough is slow to move
out. Upper ridge and surface high looks to build back in on Tuesday
with drier conditions returning. Temperatures during this period are
expected to range in the 70s to mid 80s during the day with
overnight lows fluctuating with some nights in the 50s and some in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminal over the next 24
hours. There may be brief periods of MVFR ceilings at ELM, ITH,
and SYR around 09z on Wednesday. Due to low confidence, this was
added in as a Tempo group. There is a chance for scattered
showers between 03 and 09z, but due to the limited coverage,
there was not mention of showers with this update.

A brief period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be possible
at most CNY terminals beginning around 03z. Direction will be
southwesterly at 40 kts. At the surface, gusty winds will remain
present but become calmer overnight. Wind direction will
fluctuate between west and southwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday Evening through Wednesday Night...Restrictions
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL