Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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573 FXUS61 KBGM 220814 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 414 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend, with scattered thunderstorms returning today, with even more on Sunday, as a cold front sweeps through the area. Some stronger storms may produce damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Heat and humidity will subside Monday and Tuesday behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 414 AM Update... A few convective showers have started developing over Oneida County north of a stalled out frontal boundary. Some additional development is possible over the next couple hours, and they may expand westward a bit before heading off to the east after sunrise. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon, likely starting in the Finger Lakes region as the front sags south. Later in the afternoon and into the evening hours, the focus for thunderstorms looks to shift south and east away from the boundary in the more moist and unstable airmass across the Twin Tiers and NEPA. Expect like the past couple of days thunderstorm initiation will be triggered off outflow boundaries, and we`ll likely have a few indistinct differential heating boundaries in the unstable airmass, the linger effects of rain-soaked areas from yesterday. The end result will just be similar to the past couple days, scattered to numerous pop-and-drop thunderstorms. Deep layer shear of 25 to 30 knots is a little healthier than the past few days, and this may result in a few more strong to severe storms with downburst winds being the main threat. Activity will once again follow a diurnal trend, with showers and thunderstorms diminishing overnight. Valley fog is likely in the more sheltered valleys, as a stronger pressure gradient should keep a little more wind going through the night. It will remain hot and humid today, especially south of the stalled out front, where Heat Advisory criteria looks to again be met across the southern Finger Lakes, Twin Tiers, and NEPA. A cold front will push into the area on Sunday along with a more significant shortwave trough, and attendant stronger mid and low-level flow. Bulk shear around 40 knots will be a significant uptick, but the timing of the shortwave trough is a little on the early side, and instability may not build up quite as much as it could otherwise. SPC Slight Risk covers the whole CWA, but areas E and SE of a SYR-ELM line may be slightly more favored for severe thunderstorms due to timing. Kept the Heat Advisory as-is for Sunday, though if the earlier cold front passage holds, we may be able to drop the western- most counties. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The pattern is finally expected to shift Sunday as the strong upper- level ridge responsible for the long duration heat and humidity begins breaking down as a shortwave trough and surface cold front approach from the west. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening when precipitation appears likely. With the cold front trending a little bit faster early this morning, moving into our area during peak heating hours, along with 1000-1500 J/kg of surface- based CAPE in place and 30-40 knots of shear, there will be the potential for some stronger storms to develop. Mid-level lapse rates are not very impressive at this point, so this looks to be more of a wind threat with any potential stronger storms along with heavy downpours with PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches. The SPC has outlooked the entire CWA in a marginal risk this day. With uncertainty with the timing of the front, cloud cover and the convection, temperatures on Sunday will be tricky to forecast. Highs have trended down several degrees across CNY in the low and mid 80s with the faster progression of the front, while the Twin Tiers into NE PA range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. This still gets some heat index values to around 95 for the Southern Tier of NY into NE PA. So the heat advisory was extended through Sunday with the afternoon forecast package. As the front pushes east, the upper trough will lag behind over the area on Monday, keeping the chance for scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm around. However, cooler, drier air will be moving in for most areas as dew points fall back into the upper 50s and low 60s by the afternoon. Highs Monday are expected to be from the mid 70s to the low 80s. With the Wyoming Valley being one of the last spots for this more refreshing air to move into, highs this day can still reach the mid and upper 80s. It will feel more comfortable Monday night with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Only subtle changes to the previous long term discussion. GFS trended more toward the ECMWF suite with a cooler and more progressive look later next week. High pressure briefly builds in overhead Tuesday leading to a dry day before another front looks to bring the chance for showers and storms back into the area Wednesday into Thursday. With ridging aloft Tuesday, high temperatures are expected to trend back into the 80s, but it`s not expected to feel too humid as dew points remain in the upper 50s and low 60s, but they will be trending up Wednesday ahead of the front. Wednesday is expected to also expected to have highs in the 80s, and perhaps nearing 90 degrees in a few places, before cooler air moves in again for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Valley fog will be fairly dense at ELM this morning given the rainfall yesterday, and fog may creep up into BGM as well. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions, though some MVFR ceilings will begin to develop across northern areas (SYR and RME) towards dawn, along with a few showers. Timing of showers and thunderstorms is a little uncertain today, other than the normal diurnal trend being favored. Thunder is most likely at ITH, ELM and especially BGM and AVP this afternoon and evening. Not wanting to blanket too large an area over too large a time frame, just mentioned VCTS at BGM and AVP for the time being, with no TEMPO groups. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the evening hours. Areas of fog are likely, especially where it rains, but a tighter pressure gradient may reduce potential outside of the most sheltered valleys. Outlook... Late Saturday Night through Sunday Morning...Restrictions possible in valley fog, especially ELM. Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning...Widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday with associated restrictions, mainly to visibility. Lingering restrictions possible in showers early Monday. Monday afternoon through Wednesday...VFR conditions likely. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047- 048-072. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ022>025-055-056-062. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MPH SHORT TERM...DK/MWG LONG TERM...DK/MWG AVIATION...BJT/MJM/MPH