009
FXUS61 KBGM 260157
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
957 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms pass through overnight
as temperatures remain fairly mild. Conditions may favor scattered
strong thunderstorms over the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Quiet conditions return for the later half of the week with
more seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM Update...

Not much change to the forecast this period, just watching
trends.

615 PM Update...

With a line of showers moving along the I-90 corridor, chances
of precipitation have been increased ahead of it through Oneida
county. Chances of precipitation were also increased to at least
15% for CNY as there is a weak elevated mixed layer moving
through with 700 mb to 500 mb lapse rates becoming around 7 to
7.5C a km. Elevated CAPE is looking to be near or over 1000
J/kg as we get warm, moist flow advecting in at 850 mb. There is
a lack of a trigger to get that moist later lifted to the
unstable layer but given that there is some warm air advection
there is at least will be some broad, weak lift that could lead
to a storm or two. If a storm can develop there could be some
hail but wind looks minimal with a pretty stable boundary layer.

320 PM Update...

While some of the CAMs do bring a line of passing showers this
evening, moisture looks to be limited. Chances will be better for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as an
upper-level trough moves through the region. Instability and shear
will be weak, so no severe storms are expected tonight. Temperatures
will remain mild night, only falling into the 60s.

Wednesday will start out quiet as dry air will be in place. Under
south-southwesterly flow, strong warm air advection will help push
temperatures into the 80s and even the low 90s in some lower
elevations in NEPA. Instability will increase across NEPA and
Catskills by early afternoon but there will not be anything around
to take advantage of it. As the day progresses, instability greatly
increases south of the region while remaining steady or even
decreasing during the afternoon. Still, MLCAPE values up to 1000
J/kg will be possible across the Wyoming Valley. Bulk shear in the 0-
6km layer will be 30 to 40 kts. Lapse rates in the lower levels will
be fairly steep, but that will not be the case in the mid-levels.
Based on how models look now, conditions do look more marginal than
previous runs and we have seen SPC shift south with their outlooks.
There is still a slight risk for severe weather across most of NEPA
and the Catskills, this risk could continue to shift south if models
continue to keep the best conditions south. Short-range guidance is
a bit delayed with bringing precipitation in ahead of a cold front
and very few show much in the way for convective showers. Still,
with PWATs up to 1.75 inches, heavier showers may be possible. There
is some uncertainty on how conditions will play out tomorrow based
on the location of a warm front, but a slight shift north or south
could change what the region sees.

Showers will continue into the late evening hours. Lingering
thunderstorms may also be possible. The majority of the showers will
be through the region prior sunrise Thursday morning. Cooler air
will filter in behind the passing showers, allowing temps to drop
into the mid 50s and low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
340 PM Update...

Cold front pushes out of the region at the start of the period
with drier and cooler conditions behind it. High pressure will
bring clearing skies on Thursday and high temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Surface high pressure
build overhead Thursday night and Friday. Light winds and clear
skies Thursday night with efficient radiational cooling will dip
lows down into the upper 40s to low 50s. Conditions Thursday
night will also be favorable for valley fog to develop, so have
added some patchy fog through the overnight hours. Friday will
be another nice day with warmer temperatures and dry conditions
under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 PM Update...

High pressure pushes east of the region Friday night into
Saturday morning. Deep SW return flow will bring warm air
advection and increase moisture. Low pressure tracking across
southern Canada will push a warm front into Central NY Saturday
morning, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast
model soundings are showing PWATs climbing to the 2" range and a
deep warm cloud layer above 12K feet, so any showers and storms
that do develop will be able to produce heavy downpours and
localized flash flooding will be possible. Cold front from this
system will push through on Sunday with more showers. Upper
ridge and surface high looks to build back in on Monday with
drier and cool conditions returning.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminal over the next 24
hours. There is a chance for scattered showers between 00 and
04z, mainly for RME and SYR.

A brief period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be possible
at most CNY terminals beginning around 03z. Direction will be
southwesterly at 40 kts. At the surface, gusty winds will remain
present but become calmer overnight. Wind direction will
fluctuate between west and southwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday Evening through Wednesday Night...Restrictions
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...KL