941
FXUS61 KBGM 250814
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
414 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will bring periods of showers to the
region again today, with rain chances increasing tonight as a
cold front approaches the area. Precip will come to an end from
west to east on Thursday as the front slows down. High pressure
and drier weather returns Friday and through the weekend. Any
rainfall from the remnants of Helene will stay south of the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Surface analysis places a warm front across far western PA this
morning. This front will slowly push east and northeast today,
fighting against a ridge of high pressure over New England.
Meanwhile aloft, a deep trough has dug out over the Midwest,
with a closed mid-level low developing over the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Moisture-rich southwesterly flow extends ahead of the
trough across the Appalachians into PA and NY, with several
embedded shortwave troughs. Weak disturbances will continue to
ripple through the area today and tonight, bringing periods of
enhanced rain shower coverage to the area, and perhaps some
isolated thunderstorms.

Showers look to remain spotty through the early morning hours
with a lack of forcing, but will increase across NEPA later this
morning, and in Central NY this afternoon and evening.

The cutoff low will wander towards the Missouri Bootheel
tonight, while the northern stream trough splits and progresses
north of the Great Lakes. This trough will move across southern
Quebec tonight into Thursday, dragging a weak cold front along
with it. Shower chances will increase as the front moves through
late tonight into Thursday. Drier air looks to filter into
western areas of the CWA Thursday afternoon, but the front may
slow down a bit as it approaches the coast, allowing shower
chances to linger across the Catskills and NEPA into Thursday
evening. A few stronger thunderstorms may be possible across
the Catskills and Poconos should the front stall down enough, as
enhanced mid-level flow will lead to higher bulk shear values.
Total rainfall through the period is not expected to be
excessive.

Temperatures today will be a couple degrees below normal, and
returning to near normal on Thursday across the western half of
the area, as precip pushes east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
410 AM Update...

Lingering showers east of I-81, along with perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm, are expected to taper off during the evening hours
Thursday night as a weak cold front moves away to the south and
east. If there is enough clearing behind the front overnight,
there could be a few areas of fog that develop. Lows will be
mainly in the 50s.

High pressure building in from the north on Friday is expected
to lead to mostly dry conditions. This surface high should lead
to mainly dry conditions Friday night through Saturday night.
However, some guidance has trended a little weaker with this
area of high pressure allowing moisture associated with a broad
upper low near the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys
to advect northward toward our area. As a result, some spotty
showers could be possible during this time, especially from the
Twin Tiers south, but PoPs are generally under 25%. Highs Friday
and Saturday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Lows Friday and Saturday nights are again mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
410 AM Update...

Sunday into Monday looks to be largely dry as high pressure
continues to try to deflect much of the moisture to our south.
The upper low over the Mississippi River Valley is expected to
weaken into an open wave of low pressure early next week which
may lead to a small chance of showers, but there is less model
agreement early this morning with regards to the placement and
track of this wave vs. 24 hours ago and any chances of showers
associated with it.

Confidence is higher however with an upper trough dropping into
the northern Great Lakes region and its associated surface cold
front bringing a chance of showers to the area Tuesday or
Wednesday.

Highs Sunday and Monday are expected to be slightly above
average, mainly in the low to mid 70s, with lows at night still
generally in the 50s. There does look to be a cool down toward
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers are lifting north of the Mohawk Valley and will be
highly isolated over the next several hours, though a slight
uptick in coverage is possible as we get closer to dawn.

Conditions across the area currently range from VFR to Fuel Alt,
with worse conditions generally across the Southern Tier and
NEPA. This will continue to be the trend through the morning
hours, though VFR conditions will likely worsen to MVFR after
about 08 or 09Z.

Localized gusty winds will continue through morning hours,
mainly in higher terrain sites such as ITH and BGM.

Showers will be spotty through the morning hours, with steadier
showers arriving this afternoon and evening, with worsening
restrictions from lowering ceilings and visibility. Isolated
thunder can`t be ruled out, but probabilities are too low to
carry in the TAFs.

.Outlook...

Late Wednesday Night through Thursday... MVFR and IFR with
showers passing through the region. Isolated thunder could also
occur.

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KL/MPH