757
FXUS61 KBGM 250732
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
332 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will bring periods of showers to the
region again today, with rain chances increasing tonight as a
cold front approaches the area. Precip will come to an end from
west to east on Thursday as the front slows down. High pressure
and drier weather returns Friday and through the weekend. Any
rainfall from the remnants of Helene will stay south of the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Surface analysis places a warm front across far western PA this
morning. This front will slowly push east and northeast today,
fighting against a ridge of high pressure over New England.
Meanwhile aloft, a deep trough has dug out over the Midwest,
with a closed mid-level low developing over the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Moisture-rich southwesterly flow extends ahead of the
trough across the Appalachians into PA and NY, with several
embedded shortwave troughs. Weak disturbances will continue to
ripple through the area today and tonight, bringing periods of
enhanced rain shower coverage to the area, and perhaps some
isolated thunderstorms.

Showers look to remain spotty through the early morning hours
with a lack of forcing, but will increase across NEPA later this
morning, and in Central NY this afternoon and evening.

The cutoff low will wander towards the Missouri Bootheel
tonight, while the northern stream trough splits and progresses
north of the Great Lakes. This trough will move across southern
Quebec tonight into Thursday, dragging a weak cold front along
with it. Shower chances will increase as the front moves through
late tonight into Thursday. Drier air looks to filter into
western areas of the CWA Thursday afternoon, but the front may
slow down a bit as it approaches the coast, allowing shower
chances to linger across the Catskills and NEPA into Thursday
evening. A few stronger thunderstorms may be possible across
the Catskills and Poconos should the front stall down enough, as
enhanced mid-level flow will lead to higher bulk shear values.
Total rainfall through the period is not expected to be
excessive.

Temperatures today will be a couple degrees below normal, and
returning to near normal on Thursday across the western half of
the area, as precip pushes east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update:

A frontal system will work its way through the region on
Thursday, which will bring scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to the area. This front will have an earlier
passage, so areas west of I-81 may dry out for the afternoon,
with lingering showers still present east of I-81. Otherwise,
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in
the lower to mid 70s. A few isolated showers may remain early
Thursday evening, but otherwise most of the area will be mainly
dry with lows mainly in the 50s.

High pressure will bring dry conditions for Friday along with
partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower
to mid 70s. A few isolated showers will be possible from the
Twin Tiers southward Friday night with potentially some moisture
advecting in between an upper level low across the Canadian
Maritimes and another low across the Mississippi River Valley,
but the chance are that the entire area will remain rain-free.
Lows are expected to mainly be in the 50s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM Update:

Mainly dry conditions are anticipated for the weekend with
surface high pressure in control and moisture associated with
the remnants of Helene remaining across the Mississippi River
Valley area. This closed upper low will transition to more of an
open wave early next week and potentially bring showers to the
area around the Tuesday timeframe. This is far from a certainty
though as there is some model guidance that keeps this moisture
well south of our area.

Temperatures in the long term will remain slightly above normal
(highs mainly in the lower to mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers are lifting north of the Mohawk Valley and will be
highly isolated over the next several hours, though a slight
uptick in coverage is possible as we get closer to dawn.

Conditions across the area currently range from VFR to Fuel Alt,
with worse conditions generally across the Southern Tier and
NEPA. This will continue to be the trend through the morning
hours, though VFR conditions will likely worsen to MVFR after
about 08 or 09Z.

Localized gusty winds will continue through morning hours,
mainly in higher terrain sites such as ITH and BGM.

Showers will be spotty through the morning hours, with steadier
showers arriving this afternoon and evening, with worsening
restrictions from lowering ceilings and visibility. Isolated
thunder can`t be ruled out, but probabilities are too low to
carry in the TAFs.

.Outlook...

Late Wednesday Night through Thursday... MVFR and IFR with
showers passing through the region. Isolated thunder could also
occur.

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...KL/MPH