Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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945 FXUS61 KBGM 271325 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 925 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet conditions return to the region through the end of the work week, though a passing shower will be possible across the Mohawk Valley region this morning. The next system moves in this weekend, with periods of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 925 AM Update... Some minor changes were made for this update but overall the forecast is doing well. 640 AM Update No significant changes. Touched up cloud cover based on the latest visible satellite imagery and 09z HRRR. A few rain showers will be possible along and north of I-90 now through mid to late morning; just trace or a few hundreths of rainfall expected here; dry elsewhere. Temperatures are starting off between 55 to 65 out there early this morning. There is some patchy fog around as expected. Generally, we are still expecting the stratus cloud layer to scatter out, giving way to sunshine by midday, with mostly sunny skies prevailing this afternoon. 215 AM Update Much quieter, cooler and less humid weather expected for the near term period. Clouds linger through much of the morning hours today before scattering out midday or early afternoon. The afternoon looks to feature plenty of sunshine and drier air mixes down into the boundary layer. Cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70 across Central NY with low 70s to low 80s in NE PA. NW winds will be a little breezy later today, between 8-15 mph with gusts up around 20-25 mph expected. Winds quickly diminish toward sunset and high pressure approaches. Cool and mostly clear with light winds tonight as a 1020mb surface high builds overhead. Overnight lows dip down into the 40s and low 50s areawide. This is 5 to 10 degrees below average for late June, and will be quite refreshing. Sprawling surface high pressure remains in place Friday morning, only slowly translating east into New England by the afternoon hours. After some patchy early morning valley fog, skies will be sunny to mostly sunny through the day. With full sunshine, went 1-2 degrees above the NBM temperature guidance and also lowered surface dew points and RH to account for the dry air mass centered over the region. Forecast highs are in the mid-70s to lower 80s over the area Friday afternoon, this is very close to average. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... 315 AM Update... High pressure slides east Friday night with clouds beginning to move in ahead of our next low pressure system. Overnight lows will range in the low 60s across most of the region with some spots in the mid 50s. Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west early Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture into the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year with values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 315 AM Update... Cold front trails off a surface low in Canada kicking off remnant showers and thunderstorms as this system tracks out of our region. Chances of showers are expected mainly east of I-81 Sunday morning and afternoon. Overnight temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows ranging in the low to upper 50s. Northwest flow over a `warm" Lake Ontario could produce some showers early Sunday night. Added slight chance pops in collaboration with our neighbors, otherwise showers will be short lived and dissipate early Monday morning as dry air wins out. Surface high pressure builds over the midwest Monday, but upper level trough should keep temperatures relatively cool. High pressure shifts east over our region by Tuesday allowing temperatures to warm back up. Under this pattern conditions are expected to remain quiet until midweek. Another surface low over Canada is expected to track east with a warm front dipping into our region by Wednesday kicking off showers. A cold front follows behind with more showers possible for Thursday. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 645 AM Update Patchy fog lingering INVOF BGM over the next hour, should lift quickly. Otherwise, IFR CIGs are possible at BGM through about 13z or so. For the rest of the TAF sites MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs will be around through about 14-16z this morning, before scattering out and becoming VFR midday. VFR prevails areawide this afternoon, evening and likely most of tonight. Cannot rule out valley fog at ELM, or patchy fog at BGM late tonight & early Friday but confidence is low at this time due to low level dry air in place and relatively short nights. Light and variable winds are expected through the mid morning hours. West-northwest winds become stronger by late morning into the afternoon; between 8-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts possible. Winds quickly diminish under 10 kts toward sunset, and under 5 kts heading into the overnight. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible. Monday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MJM