492
FXUS61 KBGM 180754
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
354 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with afternoon and evening
thunderstorms expected through the week. A break in the heat may
not come until the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

350 AM Forecast...

Today the heat and humidity will increase across the region and
heat advisories remain in effect. Similar to yesterday,
thunderstorms will likely pop up during the afternoon and
persist into the evening. With dew point temperatures climbing
into the 70s and high temperatures well into the 90s, a very
unstable atmosphere will be in place once again due to the
strong heating. CAPE of 2500 to 3000 J/kg is likely. The
NAMNest, which handled the convection yesterday quite well, is
showing isolated to scattered thunderstorm development again
this afternoon, especially west of the I81 corridor. Any weak
perturbation riding up and over the ridge will be enough to kick
off storms today. Very little wind shear will be present,
however, forecast soundings show an inverted V, so there will
likely be some downburst potential if any cores can get high
enough before collapsing.

Another warm and rather muggy night is in store for the region
with variable amounts of mainly mid level clouds and a light
southerly wind. Some lingering thunderstorms overnight appears
like a possibility as CAPE will remain high in the 2000+ J/kg
range.

Wednesday, sticking with persistence for the forecast...hot,
humid and a chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
One of the challenges for this forecast will be chances for
thunderstorms from another one or two perturbations riding on
top of the ridge. Although heights will rise another few DAM on
Tuesday, the mid level cap probably won`t be strong enough to
negate select areas of terrain-induced/lake breeze boundary
convection from occurring.

Currently, there are only a few guidance solutions that depict
thunderstorm initiation for Tuesday late afternoon into the
evening, so there is a possibility for storms for Central NY,
mainly west of I-81. We`ll keep monitoring near-term guidance
for changes in solutions and chances for storm initiation
Tuesday.

Heat dome remains overhead through the period. Overnight lows
will struggle to dip below 70 most places. High pressure will
dip a bit further south on Wednesday and this will allow flow to
become more out of the west-northwest and increase potential
for isolated thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night as our area will fall a bit closer to the
periphery of the high pressure system. Instability will likely
peak above 2000 J/kg during the daytime hours, and although
there will be some CIN, models are indicating potential for weak
perturbations within the flow that could be enough to break the
cap. The heat will still be an issue Wednesday with heat index
values near 100 or even above in urban areas. However,
thunderstorms may provide some brief relief where they occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The heat will continue into the extended period. Thursday will
be another hot day with most of the area approaching or
exceeding a 100F heat index once again. Thursday could end up
being the hottest day of the week, but this will be dependent on
afternoon convection.

Guidance suggests that 500mb heights could finally begin to
fall Friday into the upcoming weekend, which should lead to a
(subtle) cooling trend. However, heat indices could still
approach or exceed 100F across the southern potion of the CWA
Friday afternoon. Even into Sat and Sun, heat indices in the
valleys of southern NY and NE PA could still top out in the low
to mid 90s.

The falling heights will be accompanied by a slightly better chc
for daily convection Friday through the weekend, which would
also produce at least a bit of relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ELM will have a chance to see some fog through the early morning
hours. Otherwise, VFR through the period with high pressure
overhead. There will be a chance for isolated afternoon
thunderstorms again today, but confidence that these will
impact a terminal is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.


Outlook...

Tuesday through Saturday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly
in the later part of the period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-
     015-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ016-017.

&&

$$

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