062
FXUS61 KBGM 212342
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
742 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers or thunderstorms are expected over western
portions of the Twin Tiers late and Northeast PA into the late
evening hours. This activity will be followed by some overnight
fog in the valleys and then dry and seasonably warm conditions
for Sunday. Next week looks to be more active with a chance of
showers on most days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
625 PM Update...

PoPs were increased over Steuben County as showers and isolated
storms slowly move through. While rainfall intensities have
decreased, we continue to monitor for any hydro issues. Back
building has lead to some minor issues in nearby Allegany
County. Between Steuben County and I-81, light rain showers will
be possible and thunderstorm activity should be minimal given
the more stable environment. Besides PoPs, sky cover was also
touched up to better match satellite and surface observations.

200 PM Update...

Shortwave moving out of western Ontario has started to trigger
thunderstorms across western NY. Blended guidance suggests this
trend will continue into the western third of CNY and NEPA
during the late afternoon and evening before dropping south.
Current forecast is generally on track with latest model
guidance and statistics featuring our highest probabilities in
the Finger Lakes and west-central Southern Tier counties with
little to no rain further east. Highest CAPE and shear values
remain well off to our SW thus concern for severe storms is
waning. Once the upper waves moves south/east later
tonight...partial clearing will take place allowing for possible
valley fog overnight. Dewpoints are up with the approaching
wave which will help. Ridging builds in behind the departing
wave for Sunday as surface high pressure flexes in again from
New England and skies should continue to become partly to mostly
sunny again by Sunday afternoon. Quiet weather continues
through Sunday night although the skinny upper ridge over us
tomorrow will break down fairly quickly allowing clouds to begin
racing in overnight Sunday in preparation for increasing rain
chances again on Monday.

Blended model temperatures from the NBM looked reasonable
through Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...

Sharp upper level ridge continues to shift east on Monday
morning placing our region inbetween features. Surface high
pressure will be well off to our east with a short wave moving
through Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Mondays forecast will
depend on how long high pressure holds. Once moist air mass over
rules, showers will work their way into the region from west to
east. PoPs in the form of light rain showers look to slowly
work into areas west of I-81 by Monday afternoon, overspreading
the area Monday night before slowly tapering off Tuesday. As
ridging amplifies over the southeastern US, another shortwave
approaches the region on Tuesday afternoon and evening with more
showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures during this
period will be near normal with highs in the 60s and overnight
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
220 PM Update...

Relatively active pattern continues during this period as upper
level pattern amplifies. Placement of the upper level ridge over the
southeast will keep our region under persistent southerly flow. This
will allow a stream of embedded disturbances to continue to
trail into the region. As a result afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected through Thursday. Upper level
trough dips into the region later in the period keeping shower
chances around through the weekend as well. Rainfall appears to
be light in nature with no hazardous weather expected at this
time. Forecasted temperatures will remain comfortable with highs
in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

740 PM Update

Any thunderstorms look to stay away from our taf sites this
evening; the only exception being AVP, where t`storms could
approach at least in the general vicinity. Decided to not
include any tempo/prob 30 groups here at this time, and will
amend the taf if t`storm probabilities increase for the
airfield.

Otherwise, a few light showers possible at ELM, BGM
and maybe ITH through 06z...then dry weather prevails the rest
of the overnight and through the day on Sunday. There will be
SCT mid level VFR clouds around and some BKN higher clouds.

Confidence for fog at ELM is lower than usual due to mid level
clouds lingering until 06-08z, but then some breaks in the
clouds should allow fog to develop. Therefore, went ahead with
IFR/LIFR fog here from about 08-14z Sunday morning, with tempo
patchy fog possibly developing between 05-08z. The fog burns off
by around 14z, then it returns to VFR at ELM.

Winds will be light east-southeast to southerly less than 10 kts.

.Outlook...

Sunday evening through midday Monday...VFR. Local fog
restrictions possible late.

Late Monday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB/MJM
NEAR TERM...BTL/JAB
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JAB/MJM