039
FXUS61 KBGM 151743
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
143 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has built into the region with dry and warming
conditions expected this weekend. Next week the heat continues
to build with hot and humid conditions expected through much of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM Update...

With the upper level ridge axis just east of the region today,
cooler and drier northwest flow has allowed for comfortable
conditions this afternoon with lower dew points and a few clouds
to block the sun at times. Temperatures have been running above
models and forecast so a blend of the NBM 90th have been used
as well as a few degrees added in the Finger Lakes region to
account for the current trend.

As the trough axis moves east and upper level ridging begins to
build in, a fairly strong surface high moves into the region
with calm winds and clear skies expected tonight. This will
allow for efficient radiational cooling. What the dew points
mix to this afternoon will likely be what the temperatures
radiate to overnight. Blended in the NBM 10th for temperatures
to get closer to what the current dew points are out there
already this afternoon. Fog formation is likely in the valleys
of the upper Susquehanna river valley and Delaware River with
the clear skies. The NAM wants to really radiate out in some of
the higher valleys of the Catskills as well as through the hills
in the Southern Finger Lakes and CNY with pockets falling into
the upper 30s. This is unlikely as fog formation should end up
holding lows somewhere in the low to mid 40s at the coolest.

Tomorrow begins the big warming trend as upper level ridging
really builds in with southerly flow developing in the low
levels. This will begin to advect in warmer temperatures aloft
as well as bring in better low level moisture with dew points
increasing through the day. Still dew points should not rise
much into the 50s so it will still feel comfortable tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
410 AM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the increasing
heat and humidity starting early in the week.

Upper level ridge axis moves in from the west and the magnitude
of the ridge really starts to increase on Monday, and even more
on Tuesday. This synoptic pattern and very warm air mass will
create potentially hazardous heat conditions across the region
this week.

There continues to be strong multi-model consensus that 500mb
heights will increase above 585dm Sunday night into Monday and
then even above 590dm Monday night into Tuesday. These numbers,
if they end up verifying, would be some of the most extreme
500mb height values for this time of the year in this area in
recorded history (according to observed upper-air sounding data
from BUF and ALB). However, when looking at 850mb temperatures,
the results are similar but slightly tempered. Model guidance
for Tuesday this week is indicating 850mb temperatures around
+20 degC, which is well below all-time records but still near
the top of climatology for this time of year. The combination of
the warm air, the very strong large- scale suppression, surface
dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s and the overall,
relatively long duration of the heat will lead to a potentially
high-impact weather event this week.

Temperatures on Monday will be markedly warmer than Sunday and
the addition of humidity to the air will make it feel even
hotter. Expect highs Monday afternoon into the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Heat indices are expected to be just slightly higher.
On Monday night, there will be minimal recover from the heat
with lows only dropping down into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday will be the first really hot and humid day of the week
with highs topping out in the lower to mid 90s, and heat indices
in the mid 90s to around 100. The amount of heat and and
humidity could lead to some late afternoon convection trying to
bubble up, especially in w-central NY. Confidence in precip seem
rather low at this time as there is a good chance of a capping
inversion being in place keeping the lid on any significant
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
410 AM update...

The pattern, which was discussed in the short term section
above, will continue Tue night, Wednesday, into at least
Thursday and possibly Friday. There appears to be some
indication, from the pattern and direct model output, that
Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week. Overnight/morning
lows will be the warmest Tue morning...into the upper 60s to
mid 70s. This will set the stage for widespread mid and upper
90s...with heat indices into the upper 90s up to 100-105.

There will continue to be a threat, although low, for some
isolated convection to fire off in the hot and unstable air mass
Wednesday afternoon, and the capping inversion may be a bit
weaker, so chances are slightly higher but still on the low
side.

The upper level ridge axis appears to start re-orienting itself
farther south late Wed into Thu and Fri as the northern edge of
the ridge starts to break down a bit. A weak upper trough
starts to impinge upon the northern periphery of the ridge Thu
and Fri...which will act to usher in slightly "cooler" air and
more cloud cover potentially. There will also be increasingly
higher chances for showers and storms late in the work week.

Highs are expected to still be topping out in the lower to
possibly mid 90s on Thu...and into the upper 80s and lower 90s
on Fri. So, although the heat will be ramped down some, along
with the humidity, it will still be on toasty side through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the next 24
hours. There is a small possibility at some fog at ELM given
clear skies and cool temperatures tonight but confidence was low
so restrictions were omitted from the ELM TAF for now. Winds
this evening become variable as high pressure moves through with
light winds persisting into the morning tomorrow.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Monday morning...Mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...AJG