Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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221 FXUS61 KBGM 220728 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 328 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions return for today, with temperatures seasonably warm, followed by overnight valley fog. Rain showers expected for most of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 325 AM Update... Dry conditions return briefly today, with temperatures in the low to high 70s. Overnight, valley fog is expected to develop. Rain showers move into the area from the west in the early morning Monday hours. It`ll move into areas east of I-81 by early afternoon, and last through the rest of the day. Temperatures cool down slightly into the mid to high 60s for Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 220 PM Update... Sharp upper level ridge continues to shift east on Monday morning placing our region inbetween features. Surface high pressure will be well off to our east with a short wave moving through Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Mondays forecast will depend on how long high pressure holds. Once moist air mass over rules, showers will work their way into the region from west to east. PoPs in the form of light rain showers look to slowly work into areas west of I-81 by Monday afternoon, overspreading the area Monday night before slowly tapering off Tuesday. As ridging amplifies over the southeastern US, another shortwave approaches the region on Tuesday afternoon and evening with more showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures during this period will be near normal with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 220 PM Update... Relatively active pattern continues during this period as upper level pattern amplifies. Placement of the upper level ridge over the southeast will keep our region under persistent southerly flow. This will allow a stream of embedded disturbances to continue to trail into the region. As a result afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through Thursday. Upper level trough dips into the region later in the period keeping shower chances around through the weekend as well. Rainfall appears to be light in nature with no hazardous weather expected at this time. Forecasted temperatures will remain comfortable with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the TAF period, except ELM. Current clouds over ELM are expected to dissipate within the next hour or two, and fog is expected to develop quickly after clouds dissipate, with conditions deteriorating to IFR or lower by 07/08Z. Fog lifts a few hours after sunrise, around 13/14Z, and conditions will improve back to VFR. .Outlook... Sunday evening through midday Monday...VFR. Local fog restrictions possible late. Late Monday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...KL