Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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940 FXUS61 KBGM 221041 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 641 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions return for today, with temperatures seasonably warm, followed by overnight valley fog. Rain showers are expected for most of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 640 AM Update... No major changes to the near-term forecast. Blended new guidance with observations. 325 AM Update... Dry conditions return briefly today, with temperatures in the low to high 70s. Overnight, valley fog is expected to develop. Rain showers move into the area from the west in the early morning Monday hours. It`ll move into areas east of I-81 by early afternoon, and last through the rest of the day. Temperatures cool down slightly into the mid to high 60s for Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 405 AM Update... Upper level ridging will build across the coastal plain into New England through Tuesday, with a more active southwesterly flow setting up across NY/PA. Meanwhile a surface ridge axis will extend from northern New England towards the Delmarva Peninsula. Upper level impulses embedded in the southwesterlies aloft will attempt to bring rain showers into western NY/PA Monday night into Tuesday, but they`ll be fighting dry air in the low levels brought in by the surface ridge axis. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty heading into Monday night and Tuesday with respect to precip chances given the setup, but PoPs have been pared back a bit, especially over eastern sections. Precip and thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially across the west as a stronger shortwave trough moves through the area, and the drier air in the low levels begins to retreat. High temperatures will be slightly below seasonal normals through Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 405 AM Update... The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through mid and late week, as a deep trough carves out across the mid- Mississippi Valley and possibly cuts off into a closed low. Active southwest flow will continue, with continued chances for precip, especially Wednesday night across NEPA and the Catskills as a more significant upper level disturbance lifts across the area, and PWAT values increase to around 1.60 inches. Precip chances will linger into Friday as the trough/cutoff low slowly lifts across the area. While the focus for heavier rainfall will likely shift to the coast, some wrap-around showers are expected, especially near and north of the Thruway, with some lake enhancement possible. We`ll also be keeping tabs on tropical developments in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, it appears any tropical cyclone remnants will remain to our south and east so long as the deep trough/upper low remains somewhat progressive. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the TAF period, with brief exceptions to BGM and ELM. For ELM, valley fog struggled to develop overnight, but brief MVFR to IFR fog may development between now and 14Z. For BGM, some clouds with fuel alt ceilings have moved in, but should only last the next few hours until 14Z. .Outlook... Sunday evening through midday Monday...VFR. Local fog restrictions possible late. Late Monday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...KL