407
FXUS61 KBGM 241055
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected
into the early morning. While much of the area will become drier
by this afternoon, additional disturbances will support shower
chances tonight through Thursday. The pattern will change in
time for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
420 AM Update...

Cloudy skies prevail across the area this morning, with plenty
of low stratus, especially across the Southern Tier into NEPA.
Some light radar returns have been increasing over the past
hour or so, likely just spotty drizzle which will continue off
and on through about mid morning.

Otherwise, while we remain in active southwesterly flow aloft,
we`ll spend most of the day between upper level disturbances,
and with the lack of forcing, showers will be very sparse. Rain
chances will be marginally higher across western sections such
as the Finger Lakes, as high pressure over New England keeps
trying to filter drier air at the low levels into the eastern
reaches of the CWA.

Rain showers will increase again tonight as another shortwave
trough rolls through the area, and a 100-knot jet streak noses
into western NY. Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
either.

Wednesday will likely be mostly dry to start, but with
additional widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
cropping up in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM Update...

A warm front looks to slowly move through the region Wednesday
night through Thursday which will help trigger scattered
showers. While bulk shear values are sufficient, there appears
to be little in the way of instability during this time, so any
thunderstorm activity is expected to be pretty isolated.
Rainfall totals from Wednesday night through Thursday seem to be
generally 0.50 of an inch or less looking at both the
operational and ensemble guidance members, but the 00Z Euro does
look to be a little more robust in comparison to the previous
12Z run with a more broad 0.50-0.75 of an inch or so over CNY
with localized higher amounts near and north of the NYS Thruway.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and low 60s. Highs
Thursday are expected to be in the upper 60s and 70s, with the
Wyoming Valley climbing into the upper 70s.

Showers are expected to taper off during the evening hours
Thursday night with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM Update...

Surface high pressure building in from the north out of Canada
is expected to promote largely dry conditions over the region
Friday through Monday. A cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi
River Valley is expected to weaken into an open wave of low
pressure and be drawn northward as an upper trough moves into
the northern Great Lakes region. This would lead to a chance of
showers as early as Tuesday next week.

One thing that does bear watching in the longer range is the
Canadian has the cutoff low stronger and it shifting north over
the Ohio Valley and eventually toward our area over the weekend.
Enough moisture would be drawn up from the south that could
result in spotty showers Saturday-Monday. For now, NBM PoPs were
capped at 20% during this time as most model solutions still
favor dry conditions. Seasonable temperatures are expected with
highs in the 60s and 70s through early next week and nighttime
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Plenty of cloud cover across the area this morning. Lowest
ceilings are mostly across the Southern Tier and NEPA.
Downsloping SE winds at ITH are contributing to VFR ceilings
there, though the ceiling difference compared to nearby obs is
surprisingly high... 5000 feet at ITH, and under 1500 feet at
PEO and N03. Further north, VFR conditions still prevail at SYR
and RME.

Ceilings will gradually lift/improve through the late morning
hours, with most sites improving to VFR by the afternoon. Lower
clouds are expected to linger at ELM as a warm front takes
shape over western NY/PA.

Another round of scattered showers will move through the region
late tonight, generally after 04Z, with ceilings dropping to
MVFR before local midnight and fuel alt shortly after.

.Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday Morning...Restrictions likely along
with showers as multiple disturbances pass through the region.
Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday.

Thursday Afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MDP/MPH