Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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272 FXUS61 KBGM 200748 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 348 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Friday promoting mainly dry and mild conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are possible for western parts of the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Dry conditions return on Sunday, but more showers will be possible by Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 345 AM Update... High pressure will be over the region again today. Morning fog will dissipate by 10 am and give way to mostly sunny skies for this afternoon. Another warm day is expected with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Skies will gradually become partly cloudy tonight with some areas of fog forming during the early morning hours on Saturday. Lows will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees. Saturday will finally feature a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave dives south out of Canada across Central NY Saturday afternoon. There will be some weak instability in place with up to 500 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are looking more and more likely west of the I81 corridor with a smaller chance further east. There is very little shear available, so any storms that do develop will be weak, but with PWATs approaching 1.5", a quick afternoon downpour is possible. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Update: In what has been a rather quiet/dry period of weather with little to no change from one forecast cycle to another, there actually were rather significant changes made to the forecast for the short term period, mainly Saturday through Saturday night. A shortwave and associated surface frontal system is now anticipated to move east-southeastward and impact the weather for at least areas west of I-81, mainly from the Central Southern Tier of NY southward into Northeast PA/North-Central PA. This feature will have enough moisture and lift with it to result in at least some scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms for those areas, mainly Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Some model guidance is hinting at a narrow swath of heavier rainfall, but at this time this looks like it would occur south of our area (more across Central PA), if at all. With dry antecedent conditions, flooding is not expected to be a concern. At this time, there is much less of a chance of rain showers east of I-81, especially across the Catskills and Mohawk Valley, but this could change as it gets closer. Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected to continue with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees and overnight lows Saturday night mainly in the 50s. High pressure and weak ridging will move back into the area for Sunday, which will likely result in mostly sunny skies. Then partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 245 PM Update: A bit of a pattern change will occur next week with high pressure moving out of the area and several shortwaves and weak low pressure systems moving through. Timing of these shortwaves is uncertain this far out, but scattered showers will be possible each day, although no particular day looks to be a washout at this time. In between these shortwaves, mainly dry conditions will be present, but again timing of this occurring is uncertain. Temperature-wise, it will be noticeably cooler with temperatures at, or even slightly below normal due to the increased cloud cover and shower activity. Daytime highs each day are currently expected to be in the 60s with overnight lows mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions expected with high pressure over the region. The only exceptions will be during the morning hours with fog developing. Fog will be a little more widespread with IFR - VLIFR restrictions most likely at ITH and ELM. However, there will also be potential for IFR fog at SYR and RME briefly this morning. Any fog will dissipate by 10 am and then mostly sunny skies are expected the remainder of the day. .Outlook... Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible at ELM during the early morning hours. There is a low chance for showers and possible restrictions for Saturday afternoon and evening. Tuesday...Scattered showers and potential restrictions possible as a frontal boundary approaches. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MPK