311
FXUS61 KBGM 211819
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
219 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers or thunderstorms are expected over western
portions of the Twin Tiers late this afternoon and tonight. This
weather activity will be followed by some overnight fog in the
valleys and then dry and seasonable conditions on Sunday. Next
week looks to be more active with a chance of showers on most
days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
200 PM Update...

Shortwave moving out of western Ontario has started to trigger
thunderstorms across western NY. Blended guidance suggests this
trend will continue into the western third of CNY and NEPA
during the late afternoon and evening before dropping south.
Current forecast is generally on track with latest model
guidance and statistics featuring our highest probabilities in
the Finger Lakes and west-central Southern Tier counties with
little to no rain further east. Highest CAPE and shear values
remain well off to our SW thus concern for severe storms is
waning. Once the upper waves moves south/east later
tonight...partial clearing will take place allowing for possible
valley fog overnight. Dewpoints are up with the approaching
wave which will help. Ridging builds in behind the departing
wave for Sunday as surface high pressure flexes in again from
New England and skies should continue to become partly to mostly
sunny again by Sunday afternoon. Quiet weather continues
through Sunday night although the skinny upper ridge over us
tomorrow will break down fairly quickly allowing clouds to begin
racing in overnight Sunday in preparation for increasing rain
chances again on Monday.

Blended model temperatures from the NBM looked reasonable
through Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

220 PM Update...

Sharp upper level ridge continues to shift east on Monday
morning placing our region inbetween features. Surface high
pressure will be well off to our east with a short wave moving
through Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Mondays forecast will
depend on how long high pressure holds. Once moist air mass over
rules, showers will work their way into the region from west to
east. PoPs in the form of light rain showers look to slowly
work into areas west of I-81 by Monday afternoon, overspreading
the area Monday night before slowly tapering off Tuesday. As
ridging amplifies over the southeastern US, another shortwave
approaches the region on Tuesday afternoon and evening with more
showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures during this
period will be near normal with highs in the 60s and overnight
lows in the 50s. &&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

220 PM Update...

Relatively active pattern continues during this period as upper
level pattern amplifies. Placement of the upper level ridge over the
southeast will keep our region under persistent southerly flow. This
will allow a stream of embedded disturbances to continue to
trail into the region. As a result afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected through Thursday. Upper level
trough dips into the region later in the period keeping shower
chances around through the weekend as well. Rainfall appears to
be light in nature with no hazardous weather expected at this
time. Forecasted temperatures will remain comfortable with highs
in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected for most of this period, but overnight fog will
be a good possibility at KELM. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and tonight,
mainly west of the terminals with KITH and KELM at the highest
risk, but still of low confidence in disrupting terminal ops.
Forecast is worthy of a PROB30 in these areas. An axis of low
level moisture will extend across NEPA into CNY with a
possibility for areas of MVFR layer ceilings developing
overnight and lifting early Sunday.

.Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through midday Monday...VFR. Local fog
restrictions possible late.

Late Monday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JAB