899
FXUS61 KBGM 260608
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
208 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected across the area overnight as a
frontal system moves through the area. Showers will come to an
end from west to east on Thursday. High pressure and drier
weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
900 PM Update:

PoPs were updated once again. The main batch of showers have
moved out of the region, though there is a little back building
in Oneida County. There is also a patch of drizzle/light rain
moving into the Northern Tier of NEPA. Otherwise, most are dry
and will be for most of the night. Winds were also touched up
with this update. Otherwise, the forecast was doing well.

645 PM Update:

The CAMs are indicating that there will be a break in shower
activity for the first half of the overnight hours. Looking at
radar, there is little to no activity out west, so it seems like
the CAMs are indeed onto something. Due to this, PoPs were
greatly reduced until around midnight. Then as the frontal
system approaches late tonight, PoPs gradually increase into
what was previously forecasted. Model guidance does show limited
instability during the early morning hours tomorrow, so thunder
remains in the forecast for that time period.

Minor adjustments were needed to the hourly temps and winds to
better match the latest observations. The showers have cooled
conditions a little bit more than originally forecasted. With
showers clearing out and the added moisture left behind, fog
cannot be totally ruled out. However, model soundings are
showing strong winds just above the surface, so that will likely
prevent much fog from developing.

315 PM Update:

Widespread showers have moved in a bit quicker than previously
anticipated and therefore made some adjustments to PoPs for the
remainder of this afternoon. For the most part, thunderstorms
have not been able to develop, so removed mention of thunder for
the remainder of this afternoon into this evening.

The cutoff low north of the area will drag a warm front through
the region tonight, which will result in additional showers and
possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. Moderate rainfall is
possible at times, but flooding is not expected. Then the
associated cold front slowly moves through the area on Thursday,
which will allow showers to slowly taper off from west to east.
By the afternoon, areas west of I-81 may be mostly dry, but
showers may linger a bit longer east of I-81, especially for
Northeast PA to the Catskills. Otherwise, after a cloudy start
area-wide, partial clearing is expected from west to east as the
cold front moves through. High temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

A few lingering showers will be possible across the Poconos-
Catskills Thursday evening, but otherwise the rest of the area
will be dry as high pressure moves in. Lows are expected to be
in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM Update...

High pressure drop south out of Canada on Friday, leading to
mostly dry conditions. However, models have been trying to sneak
some moisture into NE PA Friday evening through Saturday
morning. The broad upper low near the mid- Mississippi River
valley absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Helene and a weak
shortwave rotating around this low could come far enough north
to produce some spotty showers, but PoPs are generally under
30% through Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights
are again mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 PM Update...

Sunday into Tuesday will be dominated by large ridge of high
pressure. This high pressure system should prevent the
aforementioned upper low from coming any further north and it
exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night.

The next chance for any rainfall will come towards the end of
the forecast period as a cold front may drop far enough
southward to push across Central NY. However, at this time
confidence is too low on the timing and position of this front,
so have kept PoPs below 50% at this time. If this front does
push through the region, expect cool conditions mid week onward
with the potential for frost Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Plenty of cloud and a moist southerly flow with spotty showers
and drizzle ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to
varying conditions from VFR to IFR early this morning, with most
sights hovering between MVFR and fuel-alt conditions. Showers
are expected to become more widespread in coverage as the
frontal boundary moves into CNY, generally between 08-12Z.
Showers look to be at their heaviest between 10-15Z today which
can lead to IFR or worse visibility at times. Showers are
expected to taper off over the CNY terminals by about 18Z, but
the cold front may slow down over NE PA before it departs the
area, which can lead to some additional showers through the
evening. There is the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm
through this afternoon, but confidence on where any may occur is
too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Winds are expected to shift today from the south-southeast to
the north-northwest by the afternoon, but should remain pretty
light at most terminals. There is a brief period early this
morning at the start of the TAF period through 09-10Z that
guidance does support some borderline southwesterly LLWS at SYR,
so this has been added.

Slowly improving ceilings are expected for most terminals later
this afternoon and evening, but if there is enough clearing,
then perhaps some patchy valley fog could starting toward the
end of the TAF.


.Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but valley fog is
possible at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/DK
NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...DK