047
FXUS61 KBGM 221823
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
223 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions return for today, with temperatures seasonably
warm, followed by overnight valley fog. Rain showers are
expected for most of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM Update...

Updated sky grids to include persist mid level clouds over the
twin tiers this afternoon. Otherwise blended in current
observations to keep temperatures and dew points on track.

930 AM Update...

Removed fog from the grids as it has dissipated sooner than
forecasted. Otherwise made minor tweaks to temperatures and dew
points with current observations. No other changes needed at
this time.

640 AM Update...

No major changes to the near-term forecast. Blended new guidance
with observations.


325 AM Update...

Dry conditions return briefly today, with temperatures in the
low to high 70s. Overnight, valley fog is expected to develop.
Rain showers move into the area from the west in the early
morning Monday hours. It`ll move into areas east of I-81 by
early afternoon, and last through the rest of the day.
Temperatures cool down slightly into the mid to high 60s for
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM Update...
The midweek period will continue to be a battle between stable
dry low level air feeding in from high pressure to our
northeast, and moisture aloft from disturbances embedded within
southwesterly mid-to-upper level flow. The end result will be
plenty of clouds, along with waves of showers at times and
perhaps isolated thunder.

Initially, surface high pressure extending down from New
England, will have the upper hand in keeping things stable.
Confidence has increased that areas east of I-81 will be mainly
dry during the day even though clouds will be thickening. Even
to the west, any showers will tend to be spotty and light.
Clouds will hold temperatures in the 60s for highs, though lower
elevations along the NY Thruway as well as the Wyoming Valley in
PA could get close to 70.

A better wave and lobe of deeper moisture are projected to pass
Tuesday night into Wednesday, along with some forced ascent
from the left exit region of a jet aloft. This will be coupled
with a modest low level jet in the 925-850mb feeding in moisture
above the stable surface layer. Amounts do not look that heavy,
but showers will be likely during that period. Elevated yet
limited instability aloft could also lead to isolated thunder
along the wave itself, but mostly just showers are anticipated.
Copious clouds will prevent temperatures from falling below
upper 40s-upper 50s Tuesday night, followed by highs of only
upper 50s-mid 60s Wednesday. Downsloping of southeasterly winds
could get the Finger Lakes-Syracuse areas more into the upper
60s-near 70. By Wednesday night, upper ridging will start nosing
in to make moisture shallower. Showers may still be around in
the evening, but should diminish with lows of 50s-near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM update...
Uncertainty exists for whether an upper low will swing close
enough to the area of wraparound showers Thursday, otherwise
odds are increasing for a mainly dry weekend ahead.

Amplified blocking pattern is become evident late this week,
into next weekend. Some models still dig a quick upper low in
our vicinity Thursday, with resultant scattered showers, but
others shoot it more towards New England. Either way, a trend
towards our area getting situated in upper ridging is evident by
the weekend, between a broad cutoff low somewhere over the
South-Central U.S. and at least some cyclonic upper flow
lingering over New England. This would increase the odds of us
having a quieter stretch of weather Friday through next weekend.
This also, at least for now, keeps any tropical concerns at bay
for us even though there may be some development in the Gulf of
Mexico this week.

Being many days away, and with models having been inconsistent
lately, it is not wise to totally bank on dry weather just yet
but the trends do favor it. Probability of precipitation is only
in the 10-20 percent range for that time period in the latest
iteration of the forecast, with temperatures near or slightly
above climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low ceilings scatter out this afternoon at ELM/ITH/BGM with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals through tonight. Showers begin
to work their way into the western portion of our region early
tomorrow morning with Fuel Alt to IFR restrictions possible at ELM.
Otherwise showers with MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings are expected to
impact ITH/BGM early tomorrow afternoon. Remaining sites will remain
VFR through the end of the period.

.Outlook...

Monday evening Through Tuesday...restrictions possible with
showers.

Wednesday through Friday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ES