311
FXUS61 KBGM 181747
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
147 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild
weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend
for most of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
828 AM update...
Increased expected cloud cover through the morning hours and
also added some slight chances for rain over northeast PA today
given the recent trends on the radar and observations of light
rain as well. So significant changes made to the overall quiet
weather expected in the near term.

240 AM Update:

High pressure will remain in control over most of the area
today and Thursday. There is a small chance for a few isolated
showers to graze our far southern counties in NE PA tonight
through Thursday morning, but the majority of the area will
remain dry. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic
Coastline will track out to sea tonight. This system will likely
only spread high clouds across most of our area, other than
that small chance for a few showers across the far south.
Temperatures will remain warm today and tomorrow with highs in
the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM Update...
Warm and mainly dry pattern continues, though spotty showers
could occur at times east of Interstate 81.

Friday through Saturday, light cyclonic flow around the
periphery of the disorganized yet stacked wobbling coastal low
may still attempt to get spotty showers against the Poconos-
Catskills and perhaps as far west as I-81 but mostly east. More
cloud cover, and somewhat cooler temperatures, will also be in
these same areas. Most of the time and area, dry conditions will
continue with temperatures still slightly above normal. Friday
in particular will still be on the warm side, with highs of
upper 70s-lower 80s along and west of I-81, and even along the
NY Thruway.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
145 PM Update...
High pressure will initially be in the control, though with time
chances of showers will enter the picture.

Surface high pressure will hold on for awhile, but aloft there
are model disagreements for whether and when waves will crash
through the ridge. If nothing else, this will hold temperatures
down to near normal, and increase cloud cover. Some model runs
even yield rain as early as Monday, though midweek will be the
more probable time for rain chances to start climbing. Overall
not seeing any high impact weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes made to the aviation forecast for the
next 24 hours with mostly a repeat of last night/this morning.
There could be a very brief and very light rain showers at AVP
or ELM this afternoon, but confidence is low. Otherwise, expecting
VFR conditions to persist through the period with widespread
high clouds today, thinning out tonight with another round of
valley fog that should impact ELM with IFR or worse conditions
through 13Z Thursday. Winds will remain light and variable.

.Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog
possible at ELM during the early morning hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL/MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MPK