152
FXUS61 KBGM 160154
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
954 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has built into the region with dry and warming
conditions expected this weekend. Next week the heat continues
to build with hot and humid conditions expected through much of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
940 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track as temperatures have fallen into
the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. As expected, cirrus
clouds have entered western NY and will slowly continue to move
to the east. Manually edited overnight lows up a degree or two
over the western Finger Lakes to hopefully capture some warmer
temps vs. east of I-81 that should be clear for longer.


620 PM Update...

Quite the wonderful Saturday evening is playing out across the
CWA with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the
mid to upper 40s. The fair weather cumulus clouds have mostly
dissipated as daytime heating is over. Clear skies and light
winds will allow temps to fall quickly once the sun sets.
Looking at satellite images, it looks like we will not be as
clear as originally thought as some high level cirrus clouds are
cresting over the ridge axis to our west and should start to
move over areas east of I-81 during the late evening/early
overnight hours. Still unclear how far east the clouds will make
it, but because of this, overnight temps were bumped up a degree
or two, especially west of I-81. The rest of the forecast
remains on track.

145 PM Update...

With the upper level ridge axis just east of the region today,
cooler and drier northwest flow has allowed for comfortable
conditions this afternoon with lower dew points and a few clouds
to block the sun at times. Temperatures have been running above
models and forecast so a blend of the NBM 90th have been used
as well as a few degrees added in the Finger Lakes region to
account for the current trend.

As the trough axis moves east and upper level ridging begins to
build in, a fairly strong surface high moves into the region
with calm winds and clear skies expected tonight. This will
allow for efficient radiational cooling. What the dew points
mix to this afternoon will likely be what the temperatures
radiate to overnight. Blended in the NBM 10th for temperatures
to get closer to what the current dew points are out there
already this afternoon. Fog formation is likely in the valleys
of the upper Susquehanna river valley and Delaware River with
the clear skies. The NAM wants to really radiate out in some of
the higher valleys of the Catskills as well as through the hills
in the Southern Finger Lakes and CNY with pockets falling into
the upper 30s. This is unlikely as fog formation should end up
holding lows somewhere in the low to mid 40s at the coolest.

Tomorrow begins the big warming trend as upper level ridging
really builds in with southerly flow developing in the low
levels. This will begin to advect in warmer temperatures aloft
as well as bring in better low level moisture with dew points
increasing through the day. Still dew points should not rise
much into the 50s so it will still feel comfortable tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
155 PM Update...

There was little to change from the early morning update and the
previous discussion remains valid.

Previous Discussion...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the increasing
heat and humidity starting early in the week.

Upper level ridge axis moves in from the west and the magnitude
of the ridge really starts to increase on Monday, and even more
on Tuesday. This synoptic pattern and very warm air mass will
create potentially hazardous heat conditions across the region
this week.

There continues to be strong multi-model consensus that 500mb
heights will increase above 585dm Sunday night into Monday and
then even above 590dm Monday night into Tuesday. These numbers,
if they end up verifying, would be some of the most extreme
500mb height values for this time of the year in this area in
recorded history (according to observed upper-air sounding data
from BUF and ALB). However, when looking at 850mb temperatures,
the results are similar but slightly tempered. Model guidance
for Tuesday this week is indicating 850mb temperatures around
+20 degC, which is well below all-time records but still near
the top of climatology for this time of year. The combination of
the warm air, the very strong large- scale suppression, surface
dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s and the overall,
relatively long duration of the heat will lead to a potentially
high-impact weather event this week.

Temperatures on Monday will be markedly warmer than Sunday and
the addition of humidity to the air will make it feel even
hotter. Expect highs Monday afternoon into the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Heat indices are expected to be just slightly higher.
On Monday night, there will be minimal recover from the heat
with lows only dropping down into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Tuesday will be the first really hot and humid day of the week
with highs topping out in the lower to mid 90s, and heat indices
in the mid 90s to around 100. The amount of heat and and
humidity could lead to some late afternoon convection trying to
bubble up, especially in w-central NY. Confidence in precip seem
rather low at this time as there is a good chance of a capping
inversion being in place keeping the lid on any significant
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
155 PM Update...

The pattern mentioned in the short term period will extend into this
period as well. While the thermometer may read a degree or two
cooler midweek, that relief will not be felt given the hot and humid
conditions. Temperatures will max out in the 90s across the region
with heat indices in the upper 90s and low 100s. Little relief will
be seen at night as temps only fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.
The peak of the upper-level ridge drifts east as the pattern becomes
normal. However, 500mb parts will remain around or above 590dm, so
little relief is expected Thursday as temperatures climb back into
the 90s during the day and only fall into the 60s/70s at night. Weak
waves riding the ridge along with a frontal system approaching from
the north will bring chances for daytime showers and storms both
days.

Conditions will continue to slightly improve through the end of the
week and into the weekend as 500mb heights slowly fall. Some 80s
will finally be sprinkled in with the 90s for Friday and with even
slightly cooler temps for Saturday. Lows will drop into the 60s both
nights. The aforementioned front will pass through late in the
week with more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible on
Friday. While dependent on the timing of the next system, the
start of the weekend has a chance to start off with a round of
showers and thunderstorms as well.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will settle over the region tonight, with
light/variable winds and mostly VFR conditions expected at all
terminals through the period. Temperatures look to cool down
to, or beyond the crossover temp at ELM, and TEMPO light fog has
been added to the TAF for the pre-dawn hours.

Winds will become southerly tomorrow, but remaining at or below
10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Monday morning...Mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...BTL/BJT
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG/MPH