744
FXUS61 KBGM 201330
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
930 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday promoting
mainly dry and mild conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible for western parts of the area Saturday afternoon and
evening. Dry conditions return on Sunday, but more showers will
be possible by Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
925 AM Update...

Allowed for valley fog to linger around a little longer this
morning before it completely burns off. Outside of some minor
sky cover tweaks, the rest of the forecast remains on track
today. Did increase PoPs tomorrow evening over western portions
of our area as a vigorous shortwave moves through.

345 AM Update...

High pressure will be over the region again today. Morning fog
will dissipate by 10 am and give way to mostly sunny skies for
this afternoon. Another warm day is expected with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Skies will gradually become partly cloudy
tonight with some areas of fog forming during the early morning
hours on Saturday. Lows will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Saturday will finally feature a chance for showers and
thunderstorms as a shortwave dives south out of Canada across
Central NY Saturday afternoon. There will be some weak instability
in place with up to 500 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are looking more and more likely west of the
I81 corridor with a smaller chance further east. There is very
little shear available, so any storms that do develop will be
weak, but with PWATs approaching 1.5", a quick afternoon
downpour is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM Update...

A shortwave will push into the area from the west, bringing
rain showers Saturday afternoon through early morning Sunday. As
it travels across Central NY and NE PA, the shortwave loses
energy and will seemingly taper off pretty quickly after
Midnight Sunday. Best chances for rain will be west of I-81,
but there are slight chances (above 20 percent) across the
majority of Central NY and NE PA. With some slightly high PWATs,
for this time of year, of 1 to 1.5 inches, some locally intense
rainfall isn`t out of the realm of possibilities. Temperatures
decrease from the high 60s/low 70s Sunday to the low to mid 60s
Monday, thanks to shortwave`s cooler origins in Canada.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
350 AM Update...

A trough forming over the Great Lakes region heading into early
next week will introduce chances for rain showers and afternoon
thunderstorms pretty much every day in the long term period.
These look generally weak, with little energy likely to create
anything strong or even severe. Though, we`re still far out in
time, and as model resolution gets better, we`ll continue to
monitor rain and storm potential. Temperatures will be in the
low to high 60s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected with high pressure over the
region. The only exceptions will be during the morning hours
with fog developing. Fog will be a little more widespread with
IFR - VLIFR restrictions most likely at ITH and ELM. However,
there will also be potential for IFR fog at SYR and RME briefly
this morning. Any fog will dissipate by 10 am and then mostly
sunny skies are expected the remainder of the day.

.Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible
at ELM during the early morning hours. There is a low chance for
showers and possible restrictions for Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and potential restrictions possible
as a frontal boundary approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK