275
FXUS61 KBGM 191757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is expected to continue to dominate over the
region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with
mainly dry and mild weather conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1245 PM Update...

Minor changes to the rest of today, mainly some sky cover
adjustments again over far western parts of the CWA over the
next hour or so until there is more clearing. There has also
been a trend where dew points have been running a little low the
last couple of days through the morning hours into the early
afternoon and can see this being the same case tomorrow so gave
them a little boost from 12-16z by blending in the NAM.

935 AM Update...

Added some patchy valley fog for another hour this morning,
mainly west of I-81. Made some minor sky cover tweaks over the
next couple of hours, mainly across the northern Finger Lakes
area where clouds continue to linger before clearing.
Temperatures were running a bit above our hourly forecast around
the Finger Lakes likely due to the cloud cover so blended in
the obs. With a pretty good radiational cooling night setting up
tonight, expanded areas of fog and extended it tomorrow morning
through 14Z.

245 AM update...

There has been some clearing in the clouds early this morning
and as such, valley fog became widespread. Any fog this morning
will dissipate by 14Z and then another warm day is expected with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s as cloud cover will be less
today. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and
areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be
similar to today with high pressure still in control and
temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM Update...

High pressure remains in place through the weekend. Dry
conditions are expected to continue through Sunday evening. High
temperatures in the low to high 70s can be expected, with a
possibility of hitting 80 in valley locations on Saturday.
Overall, a quiet and dry weekend with some warm temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM Update...

Heading into next week, high pressure gets pushed out of the
area, and a trough from Canada moves in, bringing a couple of
shortwaves and weak low pressure systems. As of now, long range
models have the entire area with chances of rain showers Monday
through Wednesday. It`s too far out in time to tell how much
rain we may get, but the strength of these systems don`t look
very impressive, and will likely be lighter intensity. Long
range guidance also has persistent rainfall over the area
through mid week, but there will likely be breaks in the
rainfall, and we`ll have better confidence in that timing as
model guidance gets finer resolution in the upcoming days.
Temperatures will dip into the mid to high 60s through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will remain in place through this evening. With
mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, it will be a good
set up for widespread fog to form overnight through early
tomorrow morning and associated restrictions. Confidence is
highest at ELM with restrictions expected to lift by around 14Z.
Guidance also suggests fog is possible for ITH, BGM and RME,
but with the fog being a very shallow layer on model soundings,
there is lower confidence for these locations, especially ITH
and BGM.

After the morning fog lifts, it will be VFR through the rest of
the TAF with winds remaining light.

.Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog
possible at ELM during the early morning hours. There is a low
chance for showers and possible restrictions for ELM Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and potential restrictions possible
as a frontal boundary approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK