Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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827 FXUS61 KBGM 170228 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1028 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather through Tuesday. A few showers will be possible Wednesday into Thursday, mainly across Northeast Pennsylvania, but otherwise conditions will remain mostly dry through at least next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 930 PM Update... Similar conditions continue with the previous forecast remaining on track. 630 PM Update... High clouds continue to move into the region this evening, used satellite imagery to update sky cover. Otherwise tweaked temperatures and dew points using a blend of current observations and the previous forecast. No other changes needed at this time. 230 PM Update... High pressure continues to bring dry and mostly sunny skies across the area. Some high cirrus clouds spreading out from a coastal system off of the Carolinas will spread into the region the remainder of this afternoon through tonight, but skies will overall remain mostly sunny/mostly clear. Patchy valley fog is again possible late tonight/early Tuesday morning, although this is highly dependent on how extensive the cirrus clouds get. It is possible that these clouds could somewhat limit (or at least delay) fog formation. Lows tonight are expected to be in the 50s for most of the area. The coastal low will move inland across the Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, but the high pressure system located over our region will be strong enough to keep any rain showers well south of the area. Still, some higher clouds streaming northward may result in partly sunny skies rather than mostly sunny, especially for Northeast PA. Temperatures will again be above normal, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue Tuesday night, with model guidance continuing to trend farther south for the northern extent of any rain showers (likely holding off until Wednesday, if at all). Skies will generally be partly to mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update... Upper level ridging over the region is expected to shift to the east Wednesday while surface high pressure weakens. This will allow for an increase in clouds from south to north as some moisture associated with upper level low over the central Appalachians slowly pushes northward. However with plenty of dry air entrenched over the region, this influx in moisture is expected to only make it so far and the trend has been for any rainfall to stay generally south of the CWA. NE PA into the Catskills seem to have the best chance of seeing any precipitation as a secondary low develops off the mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday night into Thursday and cyclonic flow tries to push moisture into the higher terrain. PoPs are generally less than 40% in this area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Farther north, PoPs were lowered across the northern Finger Lakes to the Mohawk Valley during this time from the NBM with the trend keeping precipitation suppressed to the south. Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the 70s with low 80s in some valley areas. Thursday`s highs again will be mainly in the 70s with a few areas near the Thruway making a run at 80 degrees where is it expected to be dry with perhaps a bit more in terms of sunshine. Lows Wednesday and Thursday night range from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 300 PM Update... In the longer range, there remains uncertainty with what happens with the upper low over the Appalachians as most model solutions show the low becoming an open trough Friday and shifting just offshore by early Saturday, other solutions show a possibility that it approaches the southern CWA before retrograding back to the south and west as well. For now, some low-end slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast for Friday, mainly for NE PA and the Catskills. A back door cold front looks to cross the area Friday night into Saturday as surface high pressure builds in from the northeast. Upper level ridging is expected to build in on Sunday, so all in all the weekend into early next week seems to be pretty quiet. Highs Saturday are expected to range from the upper 60s and low 70s over the Catskills to the mid and upper 70s to the west. Sunday and Monday look to have highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights are expected to trend lower with widespread upper 40s and low 50s by Sunday night. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail overnight, but widespread high clouds will overspread the region from south to north. This will put a damper on radiational cooling. Considering this, visibility restrictions from light fog at ELM have been pared back with the 00Z TAFs. Widespread high clouds will persist tomorrow, with light south to southeast winds prevailing, under 10 knots. .Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday Night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but there is a low chance for some isolated showers to possibly cause brief restrictions. Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG/ES SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...BJG/MPH