490
FXUS61 KBGM 240803
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
403 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected
into the early morning. While much of the area will be dry
Tuesday, additional disturbances will support shower chances
Tuesday night through Thursday. The pattern will change in time
for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
145 AM Update...
No major changes to the forecast overnight as overcast skies
prevail, with low stratus most common across NEPA and the
Southern Tier. Patchy drizzle will continue in these areas as
well.

930 PM Update...
With the shortwave exiting earlier this evening and the
moisture layer becoming shallower, remaining showers
diminished quickly. That said, clouds and patchy fog will
persist through the night, with some spotty light showers and
perhaps some drizzle.

Previous discussion...
Weak upper level ridging briefly builds back into the region on
Tuesday, with a brief break in precipitation expected before
the next system arrives. As the ridge slides eastwards our
region gets placed in a southerly flow pattern. This will advect
more moisture into our region kicking off more showers
especially late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
Although a chance of showers will still possible before this
time frame. Otherwise temperatures will be relatively
comfortable Tuesday afternoon with highs ranging in the mid to
upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM Update...

A warm front looks to slowly move through the region Wednesday
night through Thursday which will help trigger scattered
showers. While bulk shear values are sufficient, there appears
to be little in the way of instability during this time, so any
thunderstorm activity is expected to be pretty isolated.
Rainfall totals from Wednesday night through Thursday seem to be
generally 0.50 of an inch or less looking at both the
operational and ensemble guidance members, but the 00Z Euro does
look to be a little more robust in comparison to the previous
12Z run with a more broad 0.50-0.75 of an inch or so over CNY
with localized higher amounts near and north of the NYS Thruway.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and low 60s. Highs
Thursday are expected to be in the upper 60s and 70s, with the
Wyoming Valley climbing into the upper 70s.

Showers are expected to taper off during the evening hours
Thursday night with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM Update...

Surface high pressure building in from the north out of Canada
is expected to promote largely dry conditions over the region
Friday through Monday. A cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi
River Valley is expected to weaken into an open wave of low
pressure and be drawn northward as an upper trough moves into
the northern Great Lakes region. This would lead to a chance of
showers as early as Tuesday next week.

One thing that does bear watching in the longer range is the
Canadian has the cutoff low stronger and it shifting north over
the Ohio Valley and eventually toward our area over the weekend.
Enough moisture would be drawn up from the south that could
result in spotty showers Saturday-Monday. For now, NBM PoPs were
capped at 20% during this time as most model solutions still
favor dry conditions. Seasonable temperatures are expected with
highs in the 60s and 70s through early next week and nighttime
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low stratus, with MVFR to IFR conditions, will prevail across
the Southern Tier and NEPA into the morning hours, with
periodic patchy drizzle, especially at higher elevations. ITH
appears to be on the edge of the lower cloud deck presently,
and stratus is expected to encroach on the terminal over the
next couple of hours. However, downsloping SE winds are expected
to keep ceilings in the MVFR category.

Further north, VFR conditions prevail at SYR and RME, though
brief MVFR ceilings will be possible towards dawn.

Ceilings will gradually lift/improve through the late morning
hours, with most sites improving to VFR by the afternoon. Lower
clouds may linger at ELM as a warm front takes shape over
western NY/PA.

Another round of scattered showers will move through the region
late tonight, generally after 04Z.

.Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday Morning...Restrictions likely along
with showers as multiple disturbances pass through the region.
Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday.

Thursday Afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP
NEAR TERM...ES/MDP/MPH
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MDP/MPH