283
FXUS63 KBIS 231502
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers pass through the area today into
  early this evening, which showers moving off to the east by
  the overnight period.


- A gradual warming trend starting Tuesday will bring widespread
  highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday. Generally dry
  conditions are anticipated through the end of the workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For mid-morning update main change was to adjust timing a bit
for the showers that will continue to move west to east over
North Dakota today into this evening. There is a little initial
line that has formed, but very little is coming out of this. The
main areas of showers lags a bit, right now working through
northwest North Dakota into far southwest North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Generally quiet and dry conditions continue over western and
central North Dakota this morning. A surface trough running
north-south through eastern Montana has begun to promote showers
to develop along its length into southern Saskatchewan. Theses
showers are anticipated to continue to move to the southeast
over the next few hours, eventually dipping into our northwest
during the mid morning. Otherwise, a few areas of weak
reflectivities can be found in the deck of high level clouds
across much of the forecast area, though generally dry soundings
indicate that not much if anything is falling out of of these,
or if they are they are not likely to make it to the ground.
Winds are generally out of the south light, though a few
locations have begun to strengthen ahead of the approaching
boundary. All in all, the forecast remains on track at the time
of this morning update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Flow over the northern Plains this morning is generally zonal,
becoming increasingly southwesterly as a modest upper level
shortwave digs into the region later this morning. High clouds
and a few areas of weak reflectivities have developed across the
forecast area ahead of this shortwave. A surface trough / weak
cold front associated with this wave will progress eastward
through the mid morning and afternoon hours, promoting increased
chances for light showers, generally from 20 to 40 percent but
with a slightly higher core of 40 to 60 percent in the
northwest. Generally dry BUFKIT soundings and the angle of
attack of the inciting shortwave may prevent the southwest from
seeing much more than an isolated shower. These showers will
clear from west to east this evening. Otherwise today,
highs in the lower to mid 60s north to the lower to mid 70s
south lingering over the area. Somewhat breezy winds will
develop this afternoon as the cold front pushes across the
forecast area, with speeds generally from 10 to 15 knots and
gusts up to 25 knots.

Dry and quiet conditions are then anticipated to continue
through much of the workweek as surface high pressure builds
back into the region. This period will be characterized by a
general warming trend as a transient upper level will push
across the northern Plains, promoting widespread highs in the
80s and potentially even a few locations in the lower 90s by
Thursday. The ridge is expected to diminish and pass eastward as
we move into the weekend, allowing temperatures to drop broadly
back into the 70s. As broad area of low pressure aloft is
established across the southeastern CONUS, quiet weather is
expected to continue over the northern Plains as any systems
moving through the flow remains further to our north, though a
southward deviation of this broad low could see chances for
rain return to the forecast beginning late Saturday through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Generally VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all
terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Later this morning, a
band of showers and mid level clouds will move in from the west
along a weak cold front, sweeping across northwestern and
central North Dakota through the afternoon and early evening
hours. These showers are anticipated to be fairly light and
scattered, with no visibility reductions expected at this time.
Showers and cloud cover will generally clear from west to east
early this evening and overnight. Winds are generally light and
out of the south, but will turn to the northwest while
strengthening to 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots as the
cold front moves in during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Winds will then diminish and become west northwesterly through
the evening and then end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/JJS
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam