165
FXUS63 KBIS 230830
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
330 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of showers (30 to 50 percent) this morning through
  this evening, which showers moving off to the east by the
  overnight period.

- A gradual warming trend starting Tuesday will bring widespread
  highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday. Generally dry
  conditions are anticipated through the end of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Flow over the northern Plains this morning is generally zonal,
becoming increasingly southwesterly as a modest upper level
shortwave digs into the region later this morning. High clouds
and a few areas of weak reflectivities have developed across the
forecast area ahead of this shortwave. A surface trough / weak
cold front associated with this wave will progress eastward
through the mid morning and afternoon hours, promoting increased
chances for light showers, generally from 20 to 40 percent but
with a slightly higher core of 40 to 60 percent in the
northwest. Generally dry BUFKIT soundings and the angle of
attack of the inciting shortwave may prevent the southwest from
seeing much more than an isolated shower. These showers will
clear from west to east this evening. Otherwise today,
highs in the lower to mid 60s north to the lower to mid 70s
south lingering over the area. Somewhat breezy winds will
develop this afternoon as the cold front pushes across the
forecast area, with speeds generally from 10 to 15 knots and
gusts up to 25 knots.

Dry and quiet conditions are then anticipated to continue
through much of the workweek as surface high pressure builds
back into the region. This period will be characterized by a
general warming trend as a transient upper level will push
across the northern Plains, promoting widespread highs in the
80s and potentially even a few locations in the lower 90s by
Thursday. The ridge is expected to diminish and pass eastward as
we move into the weekend, allowing temperatures to drop broadly
back into the 70s. As broad area of low pressure aloft is
established across the southeastern CONUS, quiet weather is
expected to continue over the northern Plains as any systems
moving through the flow remains further to our north, though a
southward deviation of this broad low could see chances for
rain return to the forecast beginning late Saturday through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Generally VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all
terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Later this morning, a
band of showers and mid level clouds will move in from the west
along a weak cold front, sweeping across North Dakota through
the afternoon and evening hours. These showers are anticipated
to be fairly light, with no visibility reductions expected at
this time. Showers will generally clear from west to east Monday
evening. Winds are generally light and out of the south, but
will turn to the northwest while strengthening to 10 to 15 knots
and gusts up to 25 knots as the cold front moves in during the
late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will then diminish and
become west northwesterly through the evening and then end of
the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam