076
FXUS63 KBIS 230242
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
942 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain showers (20 to 40 percent) on Monday, with
  chances pushing east Monday night.

- Gradual warming trend Tuesday through Thursday, with dry
  weather forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Upper level clouds continue to increase across the area. All
forecast elements remain on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The forecast for tonight remains on track. Upper level clouds
will expand across western and central North Dakota tonight,
ahead of a developing mid level wave now crossing the Canadian
Rockies. This feature will bring a chance of showers to the
local area during the day Monday as it interacts with an
eastward moving frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Current surface analysis places high pressure from the lee of
the Central Rockies northeastward through the Red River Valley
of the North. Trough noted to the lee of the Northern Rockies.
Upper level analysis places west-northwest flow over our area
with a modest trough noted over the Canadian Rockies. A few
weak waves moving through the flow over our area are resulting
in a few clouds over our northeast, otherwise high clouds
continue to move along with the upper level flow.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, quiet weather will
continue into this evening, but clouds will start to be on the
increase, especially as we get later in the night, as the
aforementioned upper trough over the Canadian Rockies progresses
east and deepens as it pushes into the Plains.

On Monday, trough continues to push east and deepen as it pushes
over the Dakotas. This will result in some showers developing
and passing over the area through the day. For now have kept
chances modest (20-40 percent), but have gone higher than
current NBM which just started picking up on the chances, while
CAMs seem to be more aggressive. Wave gradually departs in the
evening with chances diminishing from west to east.

Pacific ridge then gradually makes its way east through mid-
week, resulting in a warming trend and quiet weather. By
Thursday, many locations should be well into the 80s, with NBM
seeming quite consistent and not showing much of a spread.
Ridge axis passes east going into the weekend, but systems
passing through the flow appear to hold to the north at this
point. Therefore, will continue dry forecast with seasonably
mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Light rain showers will be possible at all terminals
Monday morning and afternoon, though visibility restrictions
are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...NH