834
FXUS63 KBIS 250530
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread
  highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday.

- A little cooler after Thursday but temperatures still at or
  above normal (in the 70s and 80s) through the weekend.

- Generally dry conditions are expected through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Quiet, clear, and calm conditions continue across western and
central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update.
Winds remain generally light and variable, and skies generally
clear outside of a few high clouds tracking across the west. The
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A quiet night continues across the forecast area, with clear
skies to start the night, although nighttime satellite imagery
shows a few high clouds drifting in from Montana and
Saskatchewan in mean northwest flow aloft. Still thinking there
could be patchy ground fog with light winds and mostly clear
skies, but kept it out of the gridded forecast for now with
forecast soundings and high-res guidance not sold on any fog
development. No major changes with this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Sunny skies continue across the forecast area early this
evening, with somewhat breezy northwest winds that will be
diminishing through sunset. Should be quiet overnight, although
can`t totally rule out some patchy ground fog, but no mention of
this in the gridded forecast at this point. No changes needed
with this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Currently, high pressure at the surface and aloft remains
situated over the Northern Plains. A band of mid-level clouds
tracking southeast through the mean upper flow is currently
exiting the forecast area over the south central. Otherwise
widespread clear skies remain across the Northern Plains and
southern Prairie Provinces of Canada.

Late this afternoon and tonight west to northwest winds will
diminish early this evening and become light southerly
overnight. Mostly clear skies are expected. Although some patchy
ground fog can not be ruled out in low lying protected areas,
the probability for fog overnight looks to be quite low.

A warming trend continues through Wednesday and into Thursday
with High temperatures mainly in the 80s Wednesday and 80s to
lower 90s Thursday. Skies will remain clear to partly cloudy.
Southerly winds will increase with the strongest winds on
Wednesday situated over western North Dakota, shifting into
central North Dakota by Thursday. Afternoon humidities are
expected to fall into the teens to mid 20s over portions of
western ND each afternoon, with the lowest humidities being
over the far southwest, and south central. Dry conditions remain
through Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, temperatures drop somewhat, but remain at or
above climatological normals for late September through the
weekend with mostly dry conditions expected.

The next chance for any precipitation via the NBM looks to be
early next week as a northern stream wave tracks along the
International Border. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty
in the timing/placement of this wave which can be seen in the
ensemble temperature spreads increasing quite a bit late in the
weekend into early next week. Precipitation amounts also look
to remain light with this wave Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals
throughout the 06Z TAF period. Generally light and variable
winds will continue through the mid morning, before
organizing out of the south southwest and strengthening to 10 to
15 knots in the late morning and through the end of the TAF
period with gusts up to 25 knots anticipated. The strongest
winds will be present across the west this afternoon, before
beginning to slide into central North Dakota overnight into
Thursday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Jones
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Adam