Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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796 FXUS63 KBIS 261135 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 635 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of western and central North Dakota. - Breezy to windy conditions expected today, with some central and southwestern areas seeing high temperatures near 90 degrees. - Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions continue through the weekend, with breezy winds possibly returning on Sunday into early next week. - Temperatures turn cooler early to mid next week. Low temperatures could dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s, with highs forecast in the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Limited updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on track. A steady south wind has already developed for some central and eastern areas. This may impact low temperatures this morning, perhaps bringing slightly warmer temperatures compared to current forecast lows. Otherwise, look for mainly clear skies today, with breezy to windy conditions at times. Temperatures are still expected be quite warm today, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 A surface low will push across the state today. The resultant gradient will bring strong southerly winds to start, warming temperatures into the 80s to lower 90s. Some areas could even see mid 90s today, which may approach some record highs. Later this morning and through this afternoon, a mainly dry cold front will push from west to east. This will switch winds to the northwest and could also be breezy to windy at times. Blended in 90th percentile NBM winds for this afternoon which does bring some sustained winds in the Wind Advisory Category. Warming aloft could limit how much wind may mix down to the surface, thus limiting gusts. Given this uncertainty held off on any wind highlights for now. This wind combined with low RH from warm temperatures could bring some near critical fire weather conditions today. Uncertainties in fuels and timing of strongest winds with the lowest RH have provided for holding off on any fire weather products. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. A surface high follows the passage of this cold front tonight diminishing strong winds. This will keep conditions dry, and lower temperatures into the 40s to lower 50s for lows. High pressure with zonal flow aloft then remains in the area for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures may cool slightly as a result, although will still be above normal in the 70s and 80s. Winds will not be as breezy, although RH values could remain in the 20s and 30s each day. Dry conditions and mainly clear skies can also be expected. Another surface low could then set up across MT for Sunday, bringing a strong southerly gradient to the state. This could bring breezy to windy southerly winds and temperatures perhaps warming back into the upper 80s to lower 90s. These winds combined with lower RH values could bring the next day to monitor for near critical fire weather conditions. Mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday. Sunday night into Monday, a broad trough could bring a cold front across the area. Depending on moisture, there could be a few rain showers across the north. Breezy to windy conditions are also possible through Monday. Temperatures are expected to cool, with highs on Monday forecast in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Surface high could then linger across the region Tuesday, with northwest flow aloft. Breezy winds could continue along with cooler temperatures. Current forecast lows on Tuesday morning could be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. If this holds this could lead to some areas of frost, especially in the north and west. Perhaps some brief ridging comes in mid next week as hinted by current cluster analysis. Morning lows could still be cool, however, daytime highs may warm slightly back to near normal levels. Mainly dry conditions are also expected to continue into mid next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Low-level wind shear will be found across most TAF sites to start the forecast, coming to an end mid to late hours this morning hours as winds increase. Breezy to windy southerly winds will then be found today until a cold front moves across the state from west to east and brings breezy to windy west to northwest winds. Winds then diminish tonight, perhaps going light and variable for some areas. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are throughout the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM CDT Thur Sep 26 2024 Overall near critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of western and central North Dakota today. Uncertainties in fuels and timing of winds with the lowest relative humidity have contributed to holding off on Red Flag Warnings at this time. Strong southerly flow will bring warming temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s today. These warm temperatures will drop relative humidity values into the 20s west to 30s east. A dry cold front will then push across the state from west to east today. Shifting a strong southerly wind to a strong northwesterly wind. These strong winds combined with lower relative humidity values will create near critical fire weather conditions today. The holding off of a Red Flag Warning comes mainly from uncertainties in fuels. In addition, the strongest winds today will generally be in the east, where relative humidity will be in the 30s. Some strong winds could also accompany the cold front passage, especially in the northwest. Thus the western and some southern areas would be the higher areas of concern today, although most of the CWA has strong enough winds and low enough relative humidity values to message widespread near critical fire weather concerns. Winds look to diminish quickly tonight, with humidity recoveries 60 to 80 percent. Of note are above average temperatures expected through the weekend. These could bring continued low relative humidity values in the 20s west to 30s east through the weekend. Sunday could see more increased winds to go with these lower humidity values. This may need to be monitored for the potential return of near critical fire weather conditions. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin FIRE WEATHER...Anglin