820
FXUS63 KBIS 241636
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1136 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend is expected to start today, bringing
  widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday.

- Generally dry and calm conditions are anticipated through the
  workweek and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

We kept some clouds lingering over the central portion of the
state a bit longer this afternoon, otherwise no changes. A very
quiet day today.

UPDATE
Issued at 848 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Only some minor adjustments to sky cover for the morning update,
otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Quiet weather continues over western and central North Dakota
this morning. A few mid level clouds and scattered high clouds
amble along the near meridional flow over much of the forecast
area, though are expected to clear out from west to east over
the next few hours. Winds remain generally light, from 5 to 10
mph, and roughly out of the west. Lows this morning are
broadly from the lower 40s to the lower 50s, though a few
isolated locations have dipped into the upper 30s at the time of
this update. No major updates to the forecast were made, as the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Near meridional flow is present over the forecast area this
morning as an upper level pacific ridge begins to slide in the
the southwestern CONUS over the next few days. This approaching
ridge will promote generally dry conditions and a gradual
warming trend through much of the workweek. For today, highs are
expected to generally be in the 70s while surface high pressure
building over Montana and Wyoming will promote generally
clearing skies from west to east. Winds will remain
northwesterly and modest, from 10 to 15 mph this afternoon,
before diminishing and becoming variable this evening as we lose
diurnal heating.

As the transitory upper level ridge slides into the northern
Plains, the gradual warming trend will continue until highs peak
on Thursday, with well above normal high temperatures broadly
in the 80s and even a few 90s are anticipated. Thursday also
looks to be breezy to windy as a modest mid level jet moves over
the northern Plains, with the ensemble currently advertising
gusts up to 30 to 35 knots possible during the afternoon hours.
Moving into the weekend, the ridge is then expected to diminish
as stubborn upper level low is established over southeastern
CONUS. While the ensemble continues to dial into a cooling trend
through the weekend and into next week, it becomes increasing
discordant during this period. Two broad scenarios exist, one
"dry" and one "wet". The dry solution is the majority solution,
with around 60% of membership buy in. In this scenario, persist
ridging in the southeastern CONUS and keeps a series of
shortwaves well to the north of the northern Plains, and thus we
remain fairly dry through the weekend. The minority "wet"
solution has around 40% member buy in, and instead champions
broad pacific troughing making landfall in the Pacific Northwest
on Saturday, and then bringing widespread showers to North
Dakota through Sunday and into Monday next week. As it stands,
the NBM has begun to advertise low chances (10 to 20 percent)
for rain moving in the northwest late Sunday, before spreading
over much of central North Dakota through late Monday. In either
scenario, the cooling trend through the weekend with bring a
return to more seasonable temperatures, with highs broadly in
the 60s, by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period.

A band of mid level clouds (080-100kft) over western/central ND,
will continue to slide southeast and slowly dissipate early this
afternoon. Otherwise mostly clear skies are expected through the
18Z TAF period. West to northwest winds this afternoon 5 to 15
mph will become light southerly this evening. Winds will pick up
mid to late morning Wednesday out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...TWH