015
FXUS63 KBIS 241937
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
237 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread
  highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday.

- A little cooler after Thursday but temperatures still at or
  above normal (in the 70s and 80s) through the weekend.

- Generally dry conditions are expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Currently, high pressure at the surface and aloft remains
situated over the Northern Plains. A band of mid-level clouds
tracking southeast through the mean upper flow is currently
exiting the forecast area over the south central. Otherwise
widespread clear skies remain across the Northern Plains and
southern Prairie Provinces of Canada.

Late this afternoon and tonight west to northwest winds will
diminish early this evening and become light southerly
overnight. Mostly clear skies are expected. Although some patchy
ground fog can not be ruled out in low lying protected areas,
the probability for fog overnight looks to be quite low.

A warming trend continues through Wednesday and into Thursday
with High temperatures mainly in the 80s Wednesday and 80s to
lower 90s Thursday. Skies will remain clear to partly cloudy.
Southerly winds will increase with the strongest winds on
Wednesday situated over western North Dakota, shifting into
central North Dakota by Thursday. Afternoon humidities are
expected to fall into the teens to mid 20s over portions of
western ND each afternoon, with the lowest humidities being
over the far southwest, and south central. Dry conditions remain
through Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, temperatures drop somewhat, but remain at or
above climatological normals for late September through the
weekend with mostly dry conditions expected.

The next chance for any precipitation via the NBM looks to be
early next week as a northern stream wave tracks along the
International Border. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty
in the timing/placement of this wave which can be seen in the
ensemble temperature spreads increasing quite a bit late in the
weekend into early next week. Precipitation amounts also look
to remain light with this wave Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period.

A band of mid level clouds (080-100kft) over western/central ND,
will continue to slide southeast and slowly dissipate early this
afternoon. Otherwise mostly clear skies are expected through the
18Z TAF period. West to northwest winds this afternoon 5 to 15
mph will become light southerly this evening. Winds will pick up
mid to late morning Wednesday out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH