Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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488 FXUS63 KBIS 111914 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs on Wednesday will be the warmest of the week for most of central North Dakota, including the James River Valley, with temperatures will ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Some locations in the southern James River Valley of ND could reach the low 90s. - Higher chances for more widespread precipitation, along with the potential for severe weather, is forecast Friday night through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Other than a little diurnal cu that has developed in the James River Valley up through the north central and in the west, sunny skies are present across the area. Breezy winds in most of the area will quickly diminish this evening as the sun sets. A few showers are possible tonight through early Wednesday morning, mainly in the southwest, as a weak surface low meanders through South Dakota and WAA is present aloft. Opted to refrain from adding thunder mentions due to limited instability and time of day, although if there was a rumble or two, it wouldn`t be totally surprising either. A few CAMs do suggest the potential for showers over the north tonight and in the south central Wednesday morning. Model forecast soundings look pretty dry, however, therefore any development in the north may wind up being only virga or sprinkles. With northwesterly flow aloft being prevalent through the remainder of the workweek, additional weak embedded impulses are possible at times through the latter half of the workweek. As of right now, any of these weak impulses look very limited in areal coverage and are unlikely to produce a widespread wetting rain (at least a tenth of an inch). Though a wetting rain is always possible over a limited area under any thunderstorms that may develop. Towards the weekend is when things get more interesting as a North Pacific low drives into the Pacific Northwest. This will result in southwesterly flow aloft for the region. At the surface, models are also pretty consistent that by the middle of the weekend, surface high pressure will center over the Great Lakes Region and low pressure will be off to the west. This will advect Gulf Moisture into the area starting with western ND on Friday. Currently models are in good agreement that mixed layer dewpoints will be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees Saturday evening across the entire region. Depending on exactly when any forcing comes through the area and how strong it is, this could lead to a severe weather threat Friday afternoon/evening primarily in the west. And another threat Saturday across the entire area. These potential severe threats are also outlined by CSU Machine Learning. High temperatures on Wednesday are still expected to be the warmest of the week for much of central ND, with some 90 degree readings possible in the southern James River Valley of ND. This is a continued trend downward for locations further to the northwest due to a cold frontal boundary entering northwestern North Dakota around sunrise and progressing eastward rapidly through the day. Beyond Wednesday, temperatures cool a bit overall and look seasonable through the weekend with perhaps seasonably cool temperatures to start next week. This translates to highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s through the weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s to start next week. That said, while NBM ensemble temperature spreads are relatively narrow through Friday night, spreads widen greatly Saturday through the next workweek. Either way, a cooling trend of some sort is favored by that point. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Breezy winds this afternoon will become light as the sun sets. Breezy to windy conditions are expected out of the northwest again Wednesday as a cold frontal boundary passes through. With the frontal boundary, isolated showers may develop in the southwest late tonight into Wednesday morning, although confidence on timing and exact location is low at this time. Models also suggest precipitation over northwestern ND tonight and south central ND Wednesday morning. However, with dry air in place near the surface, virga or sprinkles seem more favored than anything. Overall, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period barring any passing precipitation. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken