576
FXUS63 KBIS 231947
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
247 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers continue to push east over the
  area this afternoon, moving off to the east this evening.

- Gradual warming trend starting Tuesday will bring widespread
  highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday.

- With the exception of today into this evening, dry conditions
  expected through the rest of the work week going into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Current surface analysis places low over west-central Manitoba
with trough dropping down through the Dakotas. Upper level
analysis places trough passing through the Northern Plains, with
ridging over the west coast. Area of light showers affiliated
with the surface and upper level trough continue to pass trough
our area, but have been gradually diminishing on the back side.

For the rest of this afternoon into this evening. Showers
continue to slide to the east, and are expected to exit into
eastern North Dakota this evening. The showers have been quite
light, with most reports coming in at only a few hundreths.
Skies will then clear out overnight with the departure of the
showers.

Pacific ridge then makes its way eastward over the Rockies and
into the plains by mid-week. This will result in a warming trend
along with continued quiet weather. By Thursday, most locations
should see highs in the 80s, which will be about 15 degrees
above normal. A short wave pushes through the ridge late
Thursday which may result in a bit of cooling, but right now
forecast looks to remain dry. Next chances for precipitation may
arrive late in the weekend but models are showing some
differences with a solution at this time, so chances remain low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue to move west to
east over North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Visibility
restrictions remain minimal with these showers. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS