Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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834 FXUS63 KBIS 250530 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday. - A little cooler after Thursday but temperatures still at or above normal (in the 70s and 80s) through the weekend. - Generally dry conditions are expected through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Quiet, clear, and calm conditions continue across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early morning update. Winds remain generally light and variable, and skies generally clear outside of a few high clouds tracking across the west. The forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A quiet night continues across the forecast area, with clear skies to start the night, although nighttime satellite imagery shows a few high clouds drifting in from Montana and Saskatchewan in mean northwest flow aloft. Still thinking there could be patchy ground fog with light winds and mostly clear skies, but kept it out of the gridded forecast for now with forecast soundings and high-res guidance not sold on any fog development. No major changes with this update. UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Sunny skies continue across the forecast area early this evening, with somewhat breezy northwest winds that will be diminishing through sunset. Should be quiet overnight, although can`t totally rule out some patchy ground fog, but no mention of this in the gridded forecast at this point. No changes needed with this update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Currently, high pressure at the surface and aloft remains situated over the Northern Plains. A band of mid-level clouds tracking southeast through the mean upper flow is currently exiting the forecast area over the south central. Otherwise widespread clear skies remain across the Northern Plains and southern Prairie Provinces of Canada. Late this afternoon and tonight west to northwest winds will diminish early this evening and become light southerly overnight. Mostly clear skies are expected. Although some patchy ground fog can not be ruled out in low lying protected areas, the probability for fog overnight looks to be quite low. A warming trend continues through Wednesday and into Thursday with High temperatures mainly in the 80s Wednesday and 80s to lower 90s Thursday. Skies will remain clear to partly cloudy. Southerly winds will increase with the strongest winds on Wednesday situated over western North Dakota, shifting into central North Dakota by Thursday. Afternoon humidities are expected to fall into the teens to mid 20s over portions of western ND each afternoon, with the lowest humidities being over the far southwest, and south central. Dry conditions remain through Thursday. Beyond Thursday, temperatures drop somewhat, but remain at or above climatological normals for late September through the weekend with mostly dry conditions expected. The next chance for any precipitation via the NBM looks to be early next week as a northern stream wave tracks along the International Border. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing/placement of this wave which can be seen in the ensemble temperature spreads increasing quite a bit late in the weekend into early next week. Precipitation amounts also look to remain light with this wave Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Generally light and variable winds will continue through the mid morning, before organizing out of the south southwest and strengthening to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and through the end of the TAF period with gusts up to 25 knots anticipated. The strongest winds will be present across the west this afternoon, before beginning to slide into central North Dakota overnight into Thursday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/Jones DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Adam