248
FXUS63 KBIS 250830
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread
  highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday.

- Generally dry conditions, and at or above normal temperatures
  (broadly in the 70s and 80s) continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

High pressure can be found over the northern Plains this
morning, rendering generally dry, calm, and clear conditions.
Low temperatures are generally in the 50s, with a few locations
dipping into the mid to upper 40s where winds have completely
died out. An upper level ridge is found to the west of the
forecast area, expected to move over the forecast area this
afternoon. The progression of this ridge will allow for a
thermal axis to penetrate far north both today and Thursday,
promoting a gradual warming trend. Highs this afternoon are
expected to be above seasonable normals, broadly in the upper
70s to the upper 80s. The ridge is anticipate to become
positively tilted this afternoon as it runs into a flow-blocking
upper level low parked over the southeastern CONUS. With a
shortwave moving in along the backside of the ridge, and
strengthening mid level jet developing over western Montana this
afternoon, breezy south winds are expected to develop late this
morning and through this evening, with speeds generally from 15
to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible.

Overnight into Thursday, the deepening shortwave on the
backside of the ridge will push a weak cold front across the
northern Plains through the afternoon, along with some
scattered high level clouds over the northwest. With this cold
front, winds speeds Thursday afternoon could approach 15 to 25
mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, over much of western and central
North Dakota, with the strongest winds in the south central.
Otherwise, dry and clear conditions are expected to continue
over western and central North Dakota on Thursday.

Moving into the weekend, near zonal flow over the northern
Plains will maintain well above seasonable normal temperatures
over the forecast area, with highs generally in the upper 70s to
the upper 80s, while a few locations in the south may even peak
into the lower 90s. With the flow-blocking upper level low
lingering over the southeastern CONUS, reinforced by the
remnants of the Hurricane Helene complex, generally dry
conditions over the northern Plains are expected to continue
though the weekend. The next chance for precipitation may
present itself late Sunday as the blocking upper level low
begins to be displaced by a potentially Pacific trough being
progged, though ensemble confidence on timing and location
remains very low at this time. For now, low PoPs (10- 20%) are
found across the north Sunday night through Monday afternoon,
though these are subject to change with every model run and any
showers that do develop would be expected to be very light. The
approach of the aforementioned Pacific trough would also promote
a return to cooler temperatures, with fairly good ensemble
agreement for highs back in the 60s and 70s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals
throughout the 06Z TAF period. Generally light and variable
winds will continue through the mid morning, before
organizing out of the south southwest and strengthening to 10 to
15 knots in the late morning and through the end of the TAF
period with gusts up to 25 knots anticipated. The strongest
winds will be present across the west this afternoon, before
beginning to slide into central North Dakota overnight into
Thursday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam