Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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275 FXUS63 KBIS 251658 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1158 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday. - Generally dry conditions, and at or above normal temperatures (broadly in the 70s and 80s) continue through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Southerly winds are beginning to pick up over western ND early this afternoon. No changes needed for the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 839 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 No changes needed for the morning update. Not a cloud in the sky across western and central ND this morning. UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Quiet weather continues over western and central North Dakota this morning. Skies are clear, winds are light and variable, and temperatures are generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s, though a few locations in the lowers 40s can be found. No updates to the forecast were needed at this time, as the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 High pressure can be found over the northern Plains this morning, rendering generally dry, calm, and clear conditions. Low temperatures are generally in the 50s, with a few locations dipping into the mid to upper 40s where winds have completely died out. An upper level ridge is found to the west of the forecast area, expected to move over the forecast area this afternoon. The progression of this ridge will allow for a thermal axis to penetrate far north both today and Thursday, promoting a gradual warming trend. Highs this afternoon are expected to be above seasonable normals, broadly in the upper 70s to the upper 80s. The ridge is anticipate to become positively tilted this afternoon as it runs into a flow-blocking upper level low parked over the southeastern CONUS. With a shortwave moving in along the backside of the ridge, and strengthening mid level jet developing over western Montana this afternoon, breezy south winds are expected to develop late this morning and through this evening, with speeds generally from 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible. Overnight into Thursday, the deepening shortwave on the backside of the ridge will push a weak cold front across the northern Plains through the afternoon, along with some scattered high level clouds over the northwest. With this cold front, winds speeds Thursday afternoon could approach 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, over much of western and central North Dakota, with the strongest winds in the south central. Otherwise, dry and clear conditions are expected to continue over western and central North Dakota on Thursday. Moving into the weekend, near zonal flow over the northern Plains will maintain well above seasonable normal temperatures over the forecast area, with highs generally in the upper 70s to the upper 80s, while a few locations in the south may even peak into the lower 90s. With the flow-blocking upper level low lingering over the southeastern CONUS, reinforced by the remnants of the Hurricane Helene complex, generally dry conditions over the northern Plains are expected to continue though the weekend. The next chance for precipitation may present itself late Sunday as the blocking upper level low begins to be displaced by a potentially Pacific trough being progged, though ensemble confidence on timing and location remains very low at this time. For now, low PoPs (10 to 20%) are found across the north Sunday night through Monday afternoon, though these are subject to change with every model run and any showers that do develop would be expected to be very light. The approach of the aforementioned Pacific trough would also promote a return to cooler temperatures, with fairly good ensemble agreement for highs back in the 60s and 70s for early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. LLWS is expected tonight at all TAF sites. Clear skies expected through most of the 18Z TAF period. Perhaps some increasing high level cloudiness approaching from the northwest towards the end of the TAF period. Southerly winds will increase today and this evening from west to east. This evening as surface winds diminish and strong southerly winds continue just above the surface LLWS is expected to spread west to east across the forecast area and is included in all TAF sites. Southerly flow begins to shift west over the Western TAF sites of KXWA and KDIK Thursday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...TWH